tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-73517404921761195482011-07-31T04:45:25.117+01:00uk_psephologisthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03483117929550923628noreply@blogger.comBlogger2101100tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7351740492176119548.post-76736579342438339252009-10-12T22:17:00.001+01:002009-10-12T22:20:06.195+01:00<object classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,29,0" width="310" height="40"><br /><param name="movie" value="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Conservative%20HOLD.swf"><br /><param name="quality" value="high"><br /><embed src="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Conservative%20HOLD.swf" quality="high" menu="false" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="310" height="40"></embed><br /></object><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><br />Projected East Hampshire result<br /><br /></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255); font-weight: bold;">CON</span>: 56.08%<br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">L</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">D</span>:</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"> 26.78%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">LAB</span>:</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"> 12.49</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(192, 192, 192);">OTH</span>: 4.66</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">%</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">-----------</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">MAJ: 29.30%</span></span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">CHANCE OF CORRECT PREDICTION: MOST LIKELY<br />REGION: SOUTH EAST<br /><br />SEAT HISTORY<br />------------<br />1983-<span style="font-style: italic;">DATE</span>: CON<br /><span style="font-style: italic;"><br /></span></span></span></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7351740492176119548-7673657934243833925?l=ukpsephologist.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>uk_psephologisthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03483117929550923628noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7351740492176119548.post-68108280184795938962009-10-12T21:53:00.003+01:002009-10-12T22:03:53.902+01:00<object classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,29,0" width="310" height="40"><br /><param name="movie" value="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Labour%20HOLD.swf"><br /><param name="quality" value="high"><br /><embed src="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Labour%20HOLD.swf" quality="high" menu="false" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="310" height="40"></embed><br /></object><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><br />Projected East Ham result</span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">LAB</span>: 45.67%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255); font-weight: bold;">CON</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 19.11%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">L</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">D</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 6.56%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(192, 192, 192);"><br />OTH</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 28.66%</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">-----------</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">MAJ: 26.56%</span></span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">CHANCE OF CORRECT PREDICTION: MOST LIKELY</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">REGION: GREATER LONDON<br /><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">SEAT HISTORY<br />------------<br /><span>1997-<span style="font-style: italic;">DATE</span>: LAB<br /></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style=";font-family:trebuchet ms;font-size:100%;" ><br /></span></span></span></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7351740492176119548-6810828018479593896?l=ukpsephologist.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>uk_psephologisthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03483117929550923628noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7351740492176119548.post-31069230540797488512009-10-12T21:48:00.002+01:002009-10-12T21:53:00.289+01:00<object classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,29,0" width="310" height="40"><br /><param name="movie" value="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Labour%20HOLD.swf"><br /><param name="quality" value="high"><br /><embed src="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Labour%20HOLD.swf" quality="high" menu="false" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="310" height="40"></embed><br /></object><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><br />Projected Easington result</span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">LAB</span>: 60.04%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">L</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">D</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 18.33%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255); font-weight: bold;">CON</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 14.17%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(192, 192, 192);">OTH</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 7.47%</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">-----------</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">MAJ: 41.71%</span></span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">CHANCE OF CORRECT PREDICTION: MOST LIKELY</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">REGION: NORTH EAST<br /><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">SEAT HISTORY<br />------------<br /><span>1950-<span style="font-style: italic;">DATE</span>: LAB<br /></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style=";font-family:trebuchet ms;font-size:100%;" ><br /></span></span></span></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7351740492176119548-3106923054079748851?l=ukpsephologist.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>uk_psephologisthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03483117929550923628noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7351740492176119548.post-70440782668726692802009-10-12T21:46:00.001+01:002009-10-12T21:47:52.662+01:00<object classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,29,0" width="310" height="40"><br /><param name="movie" value="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Labour%20HOLD.swf"><br /><param name="quality" value="high"><br /><embed src="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Labour%20HOLD.swf" quality="high" menu="false" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="310" height="40"></embed><br /></object><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><br />Projected Ealing Southall result</span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">LAB</span>: 48.26%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255); font-weight: bold;">CON</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 26.73%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">L</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">D</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 17.28%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(192, 192, 192);">OTH</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 7.73%</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">-----------</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">MAJ: 21.53%</span></span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">CHANCE OF CORRECT PREDICTION: MOST LIKELY</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">REGION: GREATER LONDON<br /><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">SEAT HISTORY<br />------------<br /><span>1983-<span style="font-style: italic;">DATE</span>: LAB<br /></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style=";font-family:trebuchet ms;font-size:100%;" ><br /></span></span></span></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7351740492176119548-7044078266872669280?l=ukpsephologist.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>uk_psephologisthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03483117929550923628noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7351740492176119548.post-21945580313037032082009-10-12T21:37:00.002+01:002009-10-12T21:43:29.558+01:00<object classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,29,0" width="310" height="40"><br /><param name="movie" value="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Labour%20HOLD.swf"><br /><param name="quality" value="high"><br /><embed src="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Labour%20HOLD.swf" quality="high" menu="false" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="310" height="40"></embed><br /></object><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><br />Projected Ealing North result</span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">LAB</span>: 39.64%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255); font-weight: bold;">CON</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 36.30%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">L</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">D</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 15.46%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(192, 192, 192);">OTH</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 8.60%</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">-----------</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">MAJ: 3.34%</span></span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">CHANCE OF CORRECT PREDICTION: ULTRA-MARGINAL</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">REGION: GREATER LONDON<br /><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">SEAT HISTORY<br />------------<br /><span>1950-1955: LAB<br />1955-1964: CON<br />1964-1979: LAB<br />1979-1997: CON<br />1997-<span style="font-style: italic;">DATE</span>: LAB<br /></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style=";font-family:trebuchet ms;font-size:100%;" ><br /></span></span></span></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7351740492176119548-2194558031303703208?l=ukpsephologist.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>uk_psephologisthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03483117929550923628noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7351740492176119548.post-28954885088356494742009-10-12T21:31:00.004+01:002009-10-12T21:36:57.361+01:00<object classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,29,0" width="310" height="40"><br /><param name="movie" value="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Conservative%20HOLD.swf"><br /><param name="quality" value="high"><br /><embed src="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Conservative%20HOLD.swf" quality="high" menu="false" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="310" height="40"></embed><br /></object><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><br />Projected Ealing Central and Acton result<br /><br /></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255); font-weight: bold;">CON</span>: 40.51%<br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">L</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">D</span>:</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"> 26.33%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">LAB</span>:</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"> 25.49</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(192, 192, 192);">OTH</span>: 7.67</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">%</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">-----------</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">MAJ: 14.18%</span></span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">CHANCE OF CORRECT PREDICTION: MOST LIKELY<br />REGION: GREATER LONDON<br /><br />SEAT HISTORY<br />------------<br />NOT YET FOUGHT<br /><span style="font-style: italic;"><br /></span></span></span></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7351740492176119548-2895488508835649474?l=ukpsephologist.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>uk_psephologisthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03483117929550923628noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7351740492176119548.post-77516137793136831142009-10-12T21:24:00.002+01:002009-10-12T21:29:28.154+01:00<object classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,29,0" width="310" height="40"><br /><param name="movie" value="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Plaid%20Cymru%20HOLD.swf"><br /><param name="quality" value="high"><br /><embed src="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Plaid%20Cymru%20HOLD.swf" quality="high" menu="false" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="310" height="40"></embed><br /></object><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><br />Projected Dwyfor Meirionnydd result</span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);"><span style="color: rgb(0, 153, 0);">PC<span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">: 50.82%</span></span><br /></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255); font-weight: bold;">CON</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 19.63%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">LAB</span>: 16.07%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">L</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">D</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 9.71%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(192, 192, 192);">OTH</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 3.77%</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">-----------</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">MAJ: 31.19%</span></span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">CHANCE OF CORRECT PREDICTION: MOST LIKELY</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">REGION: WALES<br /><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">SEAT HISTORY<br />------------<br /><span>NOT YET FOUGHT<br /></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style=";font-family:trebuchet ms;font-size:100%;" ><br /></span></span></span></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7351740492176119548-7751613779313683114?l=ukpsephologist.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>uk_psephologisthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03483117929550923628noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7351740492176119548.post-69602023152952838822009-10-12T21:08:00.004+01:002009-10-12T21:31:30.838+01:00<object classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,29,0" width="310" height="40"><br /><param name="movie" value="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Labour%20HOLD.swf"><br /><param name="quality" value="high"><br /><embed src="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Labour%20HOLD.swf" quality="high" menu="false" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="310" height="40"></embed><br /></object><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><br />Projected Durham North West result</span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">LAB</span>: 42.74%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">L</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">D</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 25.42%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255); font-weight: bold;">CON</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 19.85%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(192, 192, 192);">OTH</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 11.99%</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">-----------</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">MAJ: 17.32%</span></span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">CHANCE OF CORRECT PREDICTION: MOST LIKELY</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">REGION: NORTH EAST<br /><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">SEAT HISTORY<br />------------<br />1885-1918: LIB<br />------------<br /><span style="font-style: italic;">ABOLISHED<br /><span style="font-style: italic;">------------</span><br /></span><span>1950-<span style="font-style: italic;">DATE</span>: LAB<br /></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style=";font-family:trebuchet ms;font-size:100%;" ><br /></span></span></span></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7351740492176119548-6960202315295283882?l=ukpsephologist.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>uk_psephologisthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03483117929550923628noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7351740492176119548.post-61194322124307399202009-10-12T21:03:00.002+01:002009-10-12T21:08:20.816+01:00<object classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,29,0" width="310" height="40"><br /><param name="movie" value="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Labour%20HOLD.swf"><br /><param name="quality" value="high"><br /><embed src="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Labour%20HOLD.swf" quality="high" menu="false" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="310" height="40"></embed><br /></object><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><br />Projected Durham North result</span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">LAB</span>: 52.89%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">L</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">D</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 24.65%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255); font-weight: bold;">CON</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 20.26%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(192, 192, 192);">OTH</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 2.20%</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">-----------</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">MAJ: 28.24%</span></span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">CHANCE OF CORRECT PREDICTION: MOST LIKELY</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">REGION: NORTH EAST<br /><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">SEAT HISTORY<br />------------<br /><span>1983-<span style="font-style: italic;">DATE</span>: LAB<br /></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style=";font-family:trebuchet ms;font-size:100%;" ><br /></span></span></span></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7351740492176119548-6119432212430739920?l=ukpsephologist.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>uk_psephologisthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03483117929550923628noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7351740492176119548.post-13661027424481497122009-10-12T20:52:00.003+01:002009-10-12T21:01:26.256+01:00<object classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,29,0" width="310" height="40"><br /><param name="movie" value="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Liberal%20Democrat%20GAIN%20from%20Labour.swf"><br /><param name="quality" value="high"><br /><embed src="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Liberal%20Democrat%20GAIN%20from%20Labour.swf" quality="high" menu="false" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="310" height="40"></embed><br /></object><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><br />Projected Durham result<br /></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">LD</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">:</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"> 45.52</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">%</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">LAB</span>: 35.97%</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255); font-weight: bold;">CON</span>: 12.69%</span><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /><span style="color: rgb(192, 192, 192);">OTH</span>: 5.81%<br />-----------</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">MAJ: 9.55%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /><br />CHANCE OF CORRECT PREDICTION: LIKELY<br />REGION: NORTH EAST<br /><br />SEAT HISTORY - SINCE 1885<br />-----------<br />1885-1892: CON<br />1892-1898: LIB<br />1898-1922: CON*<br />1922-1931: LAB<br />1931-1935: LIB<br />1935-<span style="font-style: italic;">DATE</span>: LAB<br /><br />* LIBERAL UNIONIST BETWEEN 1898-1912<br /><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style=";font-family:trebuchet ms;font-size:100%;" ></span></span></span></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7351740492176119548-1366102742448149712?l=ukpsephologist.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>uk_psephologisthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03483117929550923628noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7351740492176119548.post-64316694065614560682009-10-12T20:43:00.002+01:002009-10-12T20:47:31.693+01:00<object classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,29,0" width="310" height="40"><br /><param name="movie" value="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Labour%20HOLD.swf"><br /><param name="quality" value="high"><br /><embed src="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Labour%20HOLD.swf" quality="high" menu="false" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="310" height="40"></embed><br /></object><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><br />Projected Dunfermline and Fife West result</span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">LAB</span>: 36.24%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 0);">SNP</span>: 31.58%<br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255); font-weight: bold;">CON</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 13.52%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">L</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">D</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 13.47%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(192, 192, 192);">OTH</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 5.19</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">%</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">-----------</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">MAJ: 4.66%</span></span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">CHANCE OF CORRECT PREDICTION: ULTRA-MARGINAL</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">REGION: SCOTLAND<br /><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">SEAT HISTORY<br />------------<br /><span>2005-2006: LAB<br />2006-<span style="font-style: italic;">DATE</span>: LD<br /></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style=";font-family:trebuchet ms;font-size:100%;" ><br /></span></span></span></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7351740492176119548-6431669406561456068?l=ukpsephologist.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>uk_psephologisthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03483117929550923628noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7351740492176119548.post-26886770422116997052009-10-11T21:36:00.001+01:002009-10-11T21:40:27.264+01:00<object classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,29,0" width="310" height="40"><br /><param name="movie" value="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/SNP%20GAIN%20from%20Labour.swf"><br /><param name="quality" value="high"><br /><embed src="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/SNP%20GAIN%20from%20Labour.swf" quality="high" menu="false" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="310" height="40"></embed><br /></object><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;">Projected Dundee West result<br /><br /><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255); font-weight: bold;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 0);font-family:courier new;" >SNP<span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span style="font-weight: bold;">: </span></span></span></span><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255);font-family:courier new;" ><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 0);"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">42.68%</span></span></span><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255); font-weight: bold;"><br /></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">LAB</span>: 34.09%</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255); font-weight: bold;">CON</span>: 11.48%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">LD</span>: 7.00%</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(192, 192, 192);">OTH</span>: 4.74%<br />-----------<br />MAJ: 8.59%<br /><br />CHANCE OF CORRECT PREDICTION: LIKELY<br />REGION: SCOTLAND<br /><br />SEAT HISTORY<br />-----------<br />1950-<span style="font-style: italic;">DATE</span>: LAB<br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7351740492176119548-2688677042211699705?l=ukpsephologist.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>uk_psephologisthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03483117929550923628noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7351740492176119548.post-81964773125971211402009-10-11T21:33:00.001+01:002009-10-11T21:34:39.701+01:00<object classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,29,0" width="310" height="40"><br /><param name="movie" value="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/SNP%20HOLD.swf"><br /><param name="quality" value="high"><br /><embed src="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/SNP%20HOLD.swf" quality="high" menu="false" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="310" height="40"></embed><br /></object><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><br />Projected Dundee East result</span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);"><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 0); font-weight: bold;">SNP</span><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">: 50.43%</span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);"><br /></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">LAB</span>: 26.12%<br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255); font-weight: bold;">CON</span>: 15.41%<br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">L</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">D</span>: 3.59</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">%<br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(192, 192, 192);">OTH</span>: 4.45%</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">-----------</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">MAJ: 24.31%<br /></span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">CHANCE OF CORRECT PREDICTION: MOST LIKELY</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">REGION: SCOTLAND</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br />SEAT HISTORY<br />-----------<br />1950-1974: LAB<br />1974-1987: SNP<br />1987-2005: LAB<br /><span>2005-</span><span style="font-style: italic;">DATE</span>: SNP<br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style=";font-family:trebuchet ms;font-size:100%;" ><br /></span></span></span></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7351740492176119548-8196477312597121140?l=ukpsephologist.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>uk_psephologisthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03483117929550923628noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7351740492176119548.post-27032615432177783292009-10-11T11:42:00.002+01:002009-10-11T11:45:42.931+01:00<object classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,29,0" width="310" height="40"><br /><param name="movie" value="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Labour%20HOLD.swf"><br /><param name="quality" value="high"><br /><embed src="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Labour%20HOLD.swf" quality="high" menu="false" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="310" height="40"></embed><br /></object><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><br />Projected Dunbartonshire West result</span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">LAB</span>: 40.74%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 0);">SNP</span>: 34.40%<br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255); font-weight: bold;">CON</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 9.64%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">L</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">D</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 7.72%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(192, 192, 192);">OTH</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 7.49</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">%</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">-----------</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">MAJ: 6.34%</span></span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">CHANCE OF CORRECT PREDICTION: LIKELY</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">REGION: SCOTLAND<br /><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">SEAT HISTORY<br />------------<br />1950-1983: LAB<br />------------<br /><span style="font-style: italic;">ABOLISHED<br /><span style="font-style: italic;">------------<br /></span></span><span>2005-<span style="font-style: italic;">DATE</span>: LAB<br /></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style=";font-family:trebuchet ms;font-size:100%;" ><br /></span></span></span></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7351740492176119548-2703261543217778329?l=ukpsephologist.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>uk_psephologisthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03483117929550923628noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7351740492176119548.post-34861679502880172262009-10-11T11:29:00.003+01:002009-10-11T11:41:41.353+01:00<object classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,29,0" width="310" height="40"><br /><param name="movie" value="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Liberal%20Democrat%20HOLD.swf"><br /><param name="quality" value="high"><br /><embed src="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Liberal%20Democrat%20HOLD.swf" quality="high" menu="false" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="310" height="40"></embed><br /></object><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><br />Projected Dunbartonshire East result<br /><br /></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">LD</span>: 35.59</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">%<br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">LAB</span>: 21.91%<br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255); font-weight: bold;">CON</span>: 19.43%<br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 0);">SNP</span>: 18.25%<br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(192, 192, 192);">OTH</span>: 4.82%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br />-----------</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">MAJ: 13.68%<br /><br />CHANCE OF CORRECT PREDICTION: MOST LIKELY<br />REGION: SCOTLAND<br /><br />SEAT HISTORY<br />------------<br />1950-1974: LAB<br />1974-1974: CON<br />1974-1979: SNP<br />1979-1983: LAB<br />------------<br /><span style="font-style: italic;">ABOLISHED</span><br />------------<br />2005<span>-</span><span style="font-style: italic;">DATE</span>: LD<br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style=";font-family:trebuchet ms;font-size:100%;" ><br /></span></span></span></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7351740492176119548-3486167950288017226?l=ukpsephologist.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>uk_psephologisthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03483117929550923628noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7351740492176119548.post-55537857934108070302009-10-11T09:30:00.004+01:002009-10-11T09:36:06.925+01:00<object classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,29,0" width="310" height="40"><br /><param name="movie" value="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Conservative%20HOLD.swf"><br /><param name="quality" value="high"><br /><embed src="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Conservative%20HOLD.swf" quality="high" menu="false" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="310" height="40"></embed><br /></object><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><br />Projected Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweedale result<br /><br /></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255); font-weight: bold;">CON</span>: 39.38%<br /><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 0);">SNP</span>: 21.78%<br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">LAB</span>:</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"> 21.18</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">L</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">D</span>:</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"> 13.48%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(192, 192, 192);">OTH</span>: 4.18</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">%</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">-----------</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">MAJ: 18.20%</span></span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">CHANCE OF CORRECT PREDICTION: MOST LIKELY<br />REGION: SCOTLAND<br /><br />SEAT HISTORY<br />------------<br />2005-<span style="font-style: italic;">DATE</span>: CON<br /><span style="font-style: italic;"><br /></span></span></span></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7351740492176119548-5553785793410807030?l=ukpsephologist.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>uk_psephologisthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03483117929550923628noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7351740492176119548.post-21072158047004914892009-10-11T09:20:00.003+01:002009-10-11T09:29:44.249+01:00<object classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,29,0" width="310" height="40"><br /><param name="movie" value="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Conservative%20GAIN%20from%20Labour.swf"><br /><param name="quality" value="high"><br /><embed src="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Conservative%20GAIN%20from%20Labour.swf" quality="high" menu="false" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="310" height="40"></embed><br /></object><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><br /></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;">Projected Dumfries and Galloway result</span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><br /><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255); font-weight: bold;">CON</span>: 38.74%</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">LAB</span>: 29.93%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 0);">SNP</span>: 24.63%<br /></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">LD</span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 1.65%</span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /><span style="color: rgb(153, 153, 153);">OTH</span>: 5.04%<br /></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">-----------<br />MAJ: 8.81</span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">%</span></span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">CHANCE OF CORRECT PREDICTION: LIKELY<br />REGION: SCOTLAND<br /><br />SEAT HISTORY<br />--------------<br />2005-<span style="font-style: italic;">DATE</span>: LAB<br /><br /></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7351740492176119548-2107215804700491489?l=ukpsephologist.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>uk_psephologisthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03483117929550923628noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7351740492176119548.post-33035398827576849782009-10-06T22:05:00.002+01:002009-10-06T22:15:08.134+01:00<object classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,29,0" width="310" height="40"><br /><param name="movie" value="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Labour%20HOLD.swf"><br /><param name="quality" value="high"><br /><embed src="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Labour%20HOLD.swf" quality="high" menu="false" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="310" height="40"></embed><br /></object><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><br />Projected Dulwich and West Norwood result</span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">LAB</span>: 38.68%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255); font-weight: bold;">CON</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 29.82%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">L</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">D</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 20.68%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(192, 192, 192);">OTH</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 10.82</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">%</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">-----------</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">MAJ: 8.87%</span></span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">CHANCE OF CORRECT PREDICTION: LIKELY</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">REGION: GREATER LONDON<br /><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">SEAT HISTORY<br />------------<br />1997<span>-<span style="font-style: italic;">DATE</span>: LAB<br /></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style=";font-family:trebuchet ms;font-size:100%;" ><br /></span></span></span></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7351740492176119548-3303539882757684978?l=ukpsephologist.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>uk_psephologisthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03483117929550923628noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7351740492176119548.post-70138410080047242402009-10-05T00:25:00.001+01:002009-10-05T00:27:58.628+01:00<object classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,29,0" width="310" height="40"><br /><param name="movie" value="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Conservative%20GAIN%20from%20Labour.swf"><br /><param name="quality" value="high"><br /><embed src="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Conservative%20GAIN%20from%20Labour.swf" quality="high" menu="false" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="310" height="40"></embed><br /></object><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><br /></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;">Projected Dudley South result</span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><br /><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255); font-weight: bold;">CON</span>: 41.66%</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">LAB</span>: 34.64%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">LD</span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 13.98%</span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /><span style="color: rgb(153, 153, 153);">OTH</span>: 9.72%<br /></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">-----------<br />MAJ: 7.03</span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">%</span></span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">CHANCE OF CORRECT PREDICTION: LIKELY<br />REGION: WEST MIDLANDS<br /><br />SEAT HISTORY<br />--------------<br />1997-<span style="font-style: italic;">DATE</span>: LAB<br /><br /></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7351740492176119548-7013841008004724240?l=ukpsephologist.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>uk_psephologisthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03483117929550923628noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7351740492176119548.post-72733059744396519152009-10-04T23:20:00.003+01:002009-10-05T00:24:41.972+01:00<object classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,29,0" width="310" height="40"><br /><param name="movie" value="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Conservative%20GAIN%20from%20Labour.swf"><br /><param name="quality" value="high"><br /><embed src="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Conservative%20GAIN%20from%20Labour.swf" quality="high" menu="false" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="310" height="40"></embed><br /></object><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><br /></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;">Projected Dudley North result</span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><br /><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255); font-weight: bold;">CON</span>: 38.24%</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">LAB</span>: 33.84%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">LD</span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 11.94%</span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /><span style="color: rgb(153, 153, 153);">OTH</span>: 15.98%<br /></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">-----------<br />MAJ: 4.40</span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">%</span></span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">CHANCE OF CORRECT PREDICTION: ULTRA TIGHT<br />REGION: WEST MIDLANDS<br /><br />SEAT HISTORY<br />--------------<br />1997-<span style="font-style: italic;">DATE</span>: LAB<br /><br /></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7351740492176119548-7273305974439651915?l=ukpsephologist.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>uk_psephologisthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03483117929550923628noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7351740492176119548.post-80170660387991556562009-10-04T09:52:00.004+01:002009-10-05T00:25:16.821+01:00<object classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,29,0" width="310" height="40"><br /><param name="movie" value="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Conservative%20GAIN%20from%20Labour.swf"><br /><param name="quality" value="high"><br /><embed src="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Conservative%20GAIN%20from%20Labour.swf" quality="high" menu="false" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="310" height="40"></embed><br /></object><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><br /></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;">Projected Dover result</span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><br /><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255); font-weight: bold;">CON</span>: 44.02%</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">LAB</span>: 39.86%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">LD</span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 10.29%</span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /><span style="color: rgb(153, 153, 153);">OTH</span>: 5.82%<br /></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">-----------<br />MAJ: 4.15</span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">%</span></span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">CHANCE OF CORRECT PREDICTION: ULTRA TIGHT<br />REGION: SOUTH EAST<br /><br />SEAT HISTORY - SINCE 1885<br />--------------<br />1885-1921: CON<br />1921-1922: IPG*<br />1922-1945: CON<br />1945-1950: LAB<br />1950-1964: CON<br />1964-1970: LAB<br />1970-1974: CON<br />--------------<br /><span style="font-style: italic;">RENAMED DOVER AND DEAL</span><br />--------------<br />1974-1983: CON<br />--------------<br /><span style="font-style: italic;">RENAMED DOVER</span><br />--------------<br />1983-1997: CON<br />1997-<span style="font-style: italic;">DATE</span>: LAB<br /><br />* INDEPENDENT PARLIAMENTARY GROUP<br /><br /></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7351740492176119548-8017066038799155656?l=ukpsephologist.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>uk_psephologisthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03483117929550923628noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7351740492176119548.post-56807788165472047322009-10-04T09:48:00.000+01:002009-10-04T09:51:12.537+01:00<object classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,29,0" width="310" height="40"><br /><param name="movie" value="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Conservative%20HOLD.swf"><br /><param name="quality" value="high"><br /><embed src="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Conservative%20HOLD.swf" quality="high" menu="false" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="310" height="40"></embed><br /></object><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><br />Projected Dorset West result<br /><br /></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255); font-weight: bold;">CON</span>: 55.33%</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">L</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">D</span>:</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"> 38.86%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">LAB</span>:</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"> 0.89</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(192, 192, 192);">OTH</span>: 4.93</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">%</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">-----------</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">MAJ: 16.46%</span></span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">CHANCE OF CORRECT PREDICTION: MOST LIKELY<br />REGION: SOUTH WEST<br /><br />SEAT HISTORY<br />------------<br />1885-<span style="font-style: italic;">DATE</span>: CON<br /><span style="font-style: italic;"><br /></span></span></span></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7351740492176119548-5680778816547204732?l=ukpsephologist.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>uk_psephologisthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03483117929550923628noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7351740492176119548.post-60888230975520056702009-10-03T21:02:00.004+01:002009-10-04T09:47:28.674+01:00<object classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,29,0" width="310" height="40"><br /><param name="movie" value="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Conservative%20GAIN%20from%20Labour.swf"><br /><param name="quality" value="high"><br /><embed src="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Conservative%20GAIN%20from%20Labour.swf" quality="high" menu="false" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="310" height="40"></embed><br /></object><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><br /></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;">Projected Dorset South result</span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><br /><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255); font-weight: bold;">CON</span>: 46.71%</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">LAB</span>: 35.60%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">LD</span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 11.88%</span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /><span style="color: rgb(153, 153, 153);">OTH</span>: 5.81%<br /></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">-----------<br />MAJ: 11.11</span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">%</span></span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">CHANCE OF CORRECT PREDICTION: MOST LIKELY<br />REGION: SOUTH WEST<br /><br />SEAT HISTORY<br />------------<br />1885-1886: LIB<br />1886-1906: CON<br />1906-1910: LIB<br />1910-1962: CON<br />1962-1964: LAB<br />1964-2001: CON<br />2001-<span style="font-style: italic;">DATE</span>: LAB<br /><br /></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7351740492176119548-6088823097552005670?l=ukpsephologist.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>uk_psephologisthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03483117929550923628noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7351740492176119548.post-25246458859073705982009-10-03T20:44:00.000+01:002009-10-03T21:01:39.636+01:00<object classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,29,0" width="310" height="40"><br /><param name="movie" value="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Labour%20HOLD.swf"><br /><param name="quality" value="high"><br /><embed src="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Labour%20HOLD.swf" quality="high" menu="false" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="310" height="40"></embed><br /></object><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><br />Projected Doncaster North result</span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">LAB</span>: 46.49%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255); font-weight: bold;">CON</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 26.74%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">L</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">D</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 13.01%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(192, 192, 192);">OTH</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 13.76</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">%</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">-----------</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">MAJ: 19.75%</span></span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">CHANCE OF CORRECT PREDICTION: MOST LIKELY</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">REGION: YORKSHIRE &amp; THE HUMBER<br /><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">SEAT HISTORY<br />------------<br />1983<span>-<span style="font-style: italic;">DATE</span>: LAB<br /></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style=";font-family:trebuchet ms;font-size:100%;" ><br /></span></span></span></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7351740492176119548-2524645885907370598?l=ukpsephologist.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>uk_psephologisthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03483117929550923628noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7351740492176119548.post-1043170337495116472009-10-03T20:18:00.002+01:002009-10-03T20:26:06.122+01:00<object classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,29,0" width="310" height="40"><br /><param name="movie" value="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Labour%20HOLD.swf"><br /><param name="quality" value="high"><br /><embed src="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Labour%20HOLD.swf" quality="high" menu="false" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="310" height="40"></embed><br /></object><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><br />Projected Doncaster Central result</span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">LAB</span>: 42.47%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255); font-weight: bold;">CON</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 27.49%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">L</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">D</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 20.68%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(192, 192, 192);">OTH</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 9.36</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">%</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">-----------</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">MAJ: 14.98%</span></span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">CHANCE OF CORRECT PREDICTION: MOST LIKELY</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">REGION: YORKSHIRE &amp; THE HUMBER<br /><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">SEAT HISTORY<br />------------<br />1983<span>-<span style="font-style: italic;">DATE</span>: LAB<br /></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style=";font-family:trebuchet ms;font-size:100%;" ><br /></span></span></span></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7351740492176119548-104317033749511647?l=ukpsephologist.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>uk_psephologisthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03483117929550923628noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7351740492176119548.post-58744958754571465582009-09-22T23:47:00.003+01:002009-09-22T23:53:33.497+01:00<object classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,29,0" width="310" height="40"><br /><param name="movie" value="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Labour%20HOLD.swf"><br /><param name="quality" value="high"><br /><embed src="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Labour%20HOLD.swf" quality="high" menu="false" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="310" height="40"></embed><br /></object><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><br />Projected Don Valley result</span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">LAB</span>: 43.60%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255); font-weight: bold;">CON</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 36.36%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">L</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">D</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 16.14%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(192, 192, 192);">OTH</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 3.90</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">%</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">-----------</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">MAJ: 7.24%</span></span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">CHANCE OF CORRECT PREDICTION: LIKELY</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">REGION: YORKSHIRE &amp; THE HUMBER<br /><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">SEAT HISTORY<br />------------<br />1918-1922: NDP*<br />1922<span>-<span style="font-style: italic;">DATE</span>: LAB<br /><br />* NATIONAL DEMOCRATIC PARTY<br /></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style=";font-family:trebuchet ms;font-size:100%;" ><br /></span></span></span></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7351740492176119548-5874495875457146558?l=ukpsephologist.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>uk_psephologisthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03483117929550923628noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7351740492176119548.post-55989038540149919632009-09-22T23:36:00.003+01:002009-09-22T23:45:26.284+01:00<object classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,29,0" width="310" height="40"><br /><param name="movie" value="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Conservative%20GAIN%20from%20Labour.swf"><br /><param name="quality" value="high"><br /><embed src="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Conservative%20GAIN%20from%20Labour.swf" quality="high" menu="false" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="310" height="40"></embed><br /></object><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><br /></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;">Projected Dewsbury South result</span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><br /><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255); font-weight: bold;">CON</span>: 39.68%</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">LAB</span>: 33.57%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">LD</span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 11.57%</span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /><span style="color: rgb(153, 153, 153);">OTH</span>: 15.18%<br /></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">-----------<br />MAJ: 6.11</span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">%</span></span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">CHANCE OF CORRECT PREDICTION: LIKELY<br />REGION: YORKSHIRE &amp; THE HUMBER<br /><br />SEAT HISTORY<br />------------<br />1868-1918: LIB<br />1918-1922: CON<br />1922-1923: LAB<br />1923-1924: LIB<br />1924-1931: LAB<br />1931-1935: LIB<br />1935-1981: LAB<br />1981-1983: SDP<br />1983-1987: CON<br />1987-<span style="font-style: italic;">DATE</span>: LAB<br /><br /></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7351740492176119548-5598903854014991963?l=ukpsephologist.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>uk_psephologisthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03483117929550923628noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7351740492176119548.post-4550503093371105042009-09-21T23:59:00.001+01:002009-09-22T00:01:44.042+01:00<object classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,29,0" width="310" height="40"><br /><param name="movie" value="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Conservative%20HOLD.swf"><br /><param name="quality" value="high"><br /><embed src="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Conservative%20HOLD.swf" quality="high" menu="false" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="310" height="40"></embed><br /></object><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><br />Projected Devon South West result<br /><br /></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255); font-weight: bold;">CON</span>: 53.33%</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">L</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">D</span>:</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"> 20.56%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">LAB</span>:</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"> 17.51</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(192, 192, 192);">OTH</span>: 8.60</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">%</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">-----------</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">MAJ: 32.77%</span></span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">CHANCE OF CORRECT PREDICTION: MOST LIKELY<br />REGION: SOUTH WEST<br /><br />SEAT HISTORY<br />------------<br />1997-<span style="font-style: italic;">DATE</span>: CON<br /><span style="font-style: italic;"><br /></span></span></span></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7351740492176119548-455050309337110504?l=ukpsephologist.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>uk_psephologisthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03483117929550923628noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7351740492176119548.post-61773616902600193562009-09-21T23:54:00.002+01:002009-09-21T23:59:04.763+01:00<object classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,29,0" width="310" height="40"><br /><param name="movie" value="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Conservative%20GAIN%20from%20Liberal%20Democrat.swf"><br /><param name="quality" value="high"><br /><embed src="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Conservative%20GAIN%20from%20Liberal%20Democrat.swf" quality="high" menu="false" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="310" height="40"></embed><br /></object><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><br />Projected Devon North result<br /><br /></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255); font-weight: bold;">CON</span>: 44.35%</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">L</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">D</span>:</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"> 43.70%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">LAB</span>:</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"> 2.01</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(192, 192, 192);">OTH</span>: 9.94</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">%</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">-----------</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">MAJ: 0.65%</span></span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">CHANCE OF CORRECT PREDICTION: ULTRA TIGHT<br />REGION: SOUTH WEST<br /><br />SEAT HISTORY<br />------------<br />1950-1959: CON<br />1959-1979: LIB<br />1979-1992: CON<br />1992-<span style="font-style: italic;">DATE</span>: LD<br /><span style="font-style: italic;"><br /></span></span></span></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7351740492176119548-6177361690260019356?l=ukpsephologist.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>uk_psephologisthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03483117929550923628noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7351740492176119548.post-21818177225425870032009-09-21T23:49:00.003+01:002009-09-21T23:55:07.088+01:00<object classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,29,0" width="310" height="40"><br /><param name="movie" value="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Conservative%20HOLD.swf"><br /><param name="quality" value="high"><br /><embed src="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Conservative%20HOLD.swf" quality="high" menu="false" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="310" height="40"></embed><br /></object><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><br />Projected Devon East result<br /><br /></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255); font-weight: bold;">CON</span>: 55.78%</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">L</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">D</span>:</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"> 24.80%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">LAB</span>:</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"> 10.60</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(192, 192, 192);">OTH</span>: 8.82</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">%</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">-----------</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">MAJ: 30.98%</span></span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">CHANCE OF CORRECT PREDICTION: MOST LIKELY<br />REGION: SOUTH WEST<br /><br />SEAT HISTORY<br />------------<br />1997-<span style="font-style: italic;">DATE</span>: CON<br /><span style="font-style: italic;"><br /></span></span></span></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7351740492176119548-2181817722542587003?l=ukpsephologist.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>uk_psephologisthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03483117929550923628noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7351740492176119548.post-47030915600738091842009-09-21T23:45:00.003+01:002009-09-21T23:53:31.379+01:00<object classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,29,0" width="310" height="40"><br /><param name="movie" value="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Conservative%20HOLD.swf"><br /><param name="quality" value="high"><br /><embed src="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Conservative%20HOLD.swf" quality="high" menu="false" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="310" height="40"></embed><br /></object><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><br />Projected Devon Central result<br /><br /></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255); font-weight: bold;">CON</span>: 51.18%</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">L</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">D</span>:</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"> 35.36%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">LAB</span>:</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"> 4.12</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(192, 192, 192);">OTH</span>: 9.34</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">%</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">-----------</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">MAJ: 15.82%</span></span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">CHANCE OF CORRECT PREDICTION: MOST LIKELY<br />REGION: SOUTH WEST<br /><br />SEAT HISTORY<br />------------<br /><span style="font-style: italic;">NO ELECTION FOUGHT<br /><br /></span></span></span></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7351740492176119548-4703091560073809184?l=ukpsephologist.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>uk_psephologisthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03483117929550923628noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7351740492176119548.post-79675096173931357092009-09-21T23:39:00.001+01:002009-09-21T23:44:22.056+01:00<object classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,29,0" width="310" height="40"><br /><param name="movie" value="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Conservative%20HOLD.swf"><br /><param name="quality" value="high"><br /><embed src="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Conservative%20HOLD.swf" quality="high" menu="false" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="310" height="40"></embed><br /></object><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><br />Projected Devizes result<br /><br /></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255); font-weight: bold;">CON</span>: 58.10%</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">L</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">D</span>:</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"> 21.41%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">LAB</span>:</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"> 14.98</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(192, 192, 192);">OTH</span>: 5.52</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">%</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">-----------</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">MAJ: 36.69%</span></span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">CHANCE OF CORRECT PREDICTION: MOST LIKELY<br />REGION: SOUTH WEST<br /><br />SEAT HISTORY - SINCE 1868<br />------------<br />1868-1892: CON<br />1892-1895: LIB<br />1895-1906: CON<br />1906-1910: LIB<br />1910-1923: CON<br />1923-1924: LIB<br />1924-<span style="font-style: italic;">DATE</span>: CON<br /><span style="font-style: italic;"><span style="font-style: italic;"><br /></span></span></span></span></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7351740492176119548-7967509617393135709?l=ukpsephologist.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>uk_psephologisthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03483117929550923628noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7351740492176119548.post-41559040500266580622009-09-21T23:31:00.004+01:002009-09-22T23:46:30.474+01:00<object classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,29,0" width="310" height="40"><br /><param name="movie" value="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Conservative%20GAIN%20from%20Labour.swf"><br /><param name="quality" value="high"><br /><embed src="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Conservative%20GAIN%20from%20Labour.swf" quality="high" menu="false" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="310" height="40"></embed><br /></object><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><br /></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;">Projected Derbyshire South result</span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><br /><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255); font-weight: bold;">CON</span>: 42.96%</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">LAB</span>: 36.96%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">LD</span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 13.82%</span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /><span style="color: rgb(153, 153, 153);">OTH</span>: 6.26%<br /></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">-----------<br />MAJ: 5.99</span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">%</span></span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">CHANCE OF CORRECT PREDICTION: LIKELY<br />REGION: EAST MIDLANDS<br /><br />SEAT HISTORY - SINCE 1885<br />------------<br />1885-1895: LIB<br />1895-1906: CON<br />1906-1922: LIB<br />1922-1929: CON<br />1929-1931: LAB<br />1931-1945: CON<br />1945-1950: LAB<br />------------<br /><span style="font-style: italic;">ABOLISHED</span><br />------------<br />1983-1997: CON<br />1997-<span style="font-style: italic;">DATE</span>: LAB<br /><br /></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7351740492176119548-4155904050026658062?l=ukpsephologist.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>uk_psephologisthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03483117929550923628noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7351740492176119548.post-62603619434310323542009-09-21T23:25:00.002+01:002009-09-21T23:30:45.610+01:00<object classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,29,0" width="310" height="40"><br /><param name="movie" value="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Labour%20HOLD.swf"><br /><param name="quality" value="high"><br /><embed src="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Labour%20HOLD.swf" quality="high" menu="false" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="310" height="40"></embed><br /></object><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><br />Projected Derbyshire North East result</span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">LAB</span>: 41.69%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255); font-weight: bold;">CON</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 31.60%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">L</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">D</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 21.32%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(192, 192, 192);">OTH</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 5.39</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">%</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">-----------</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">MAJ: 10.08%</span></span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">CHANCE OF CORRECT PREDICTION: MOST LIKELY</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">REGION: EAST MIDLANDS<br /><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">SEAT HISTORY<br />------------<br />1885-1910: LIB<br />1910-1914: LAB<br />1914-1918: CON<br />1918-1922: LIB<br />1922-1931: LAB<br />1931-1935: CON<br />1935<span>-<span style="font-style: italic;">DATE</span>: LAB</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style=";font-family:trebuchet ms;font-size:100%;" ><br /><br /></span></span></span></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7351740492176119548-6260361943431032354?l=ukpsephologist.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>uk_psephologisthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03483117929550923628noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7351740492176119548.post-84876931220082092962009-09-21T00:37:00.002+01:002009-09-21T00:41:51.169+01:00<object classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,29,0" width="310" height="40"><br /><param name="movie" value="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Conservative%20HOLD.swf"><br /><param name="quality" value="high"><br /><embed src="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Conservative%20HOLD.swf" quality="high" menu="false" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="310" height="40"></embed><br /></object><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><br />Projected Derbyshire Mid result<br /><br /></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255); font-weight: bold;">CON</span>: 49.36%</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">LAB</span>:</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"> 30.41</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">L</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">D</span>:</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"> 14.31%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(192, 192, 192);">OTH</span>: 5.92</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">%</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">-----------</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">MAJ: 18.94%</span></span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">CHANCE OF CORRECT PREDICTION: MOST LIKELY<br />REGION: EAST MIDLANDS<br /><br />SEAT HISTORY<br />------------<br />1885-1909: LIB<br />1909-1915: LAB<br />1915-1918: LIB<br />------------<br /><span style="font-style: italic;"><span style="font-style: italic;">ABOLISHED<br /><br /></span></span></span></span></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7351740492176119548-8487693122008209296?l=ukpsephologist.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>uk_psephologisthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03483117929550923628noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7351740492176119548.post-30372319383923920172009-09-20T23:33:00.002+01:002009-09-20T23:44:01.213+01:00<object classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,29,0" width="310" height="40"><br /><param name="movie" value="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Conservative%20HOLD.swf"><br /><param name="quality" value="high"><br /><embed src="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Conservative%20HOLD.swf" quality="high" menu="false" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="310" height="40"></embed><br /></object><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><br />Projected Derbyshire Dales result<br /><br /></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255); font-weight: bold;">CON</span>: 54.71%</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">L</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">D</span>:</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"> 25.49%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">LAB</span>:</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"> 15.49</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(192, 192, 192);">OTH</span>: 4.32</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">%</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">-----------</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">MAJ: 39.22%</span></span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">CHANCE OF CORRECT PREDICTION: MOST LIKELY<br />REGION: EAST MIDLANDS<br /><br />SEAT HISTORY<br />-----------<span style="font-style: italic;">-<br /><span style="font-style: italic;">NO ELECTION FOUGHT<br /><br /></span></span></span></span></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7351740492176119548-3037231938392392017?l=ukpsephologist.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>uk_psephologisthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03483117929550923628noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7351740492176119548.post-24743999782543709972009-09-20T23:31:00.001+01:002009-09-20T23:33:00.765+01:00<object classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,29,0" width="310" height="40"><br /><param name="movie" value="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Labour%20HOLD.swf"><br /><param name="quality" value="high"><br /><embed src="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Labour%20HOLD.swf" quality="high" menu="false" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="310" height="40"></embed><br /></object><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><br />Projected Derby South result</span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">LAB</span>: 48.31%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255); font-weight: bold;">CON</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 23.98%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">L</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">D</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 22.08%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(192, 192, 192);">OTH</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 5.63</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">%</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">-----------</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">MAJ: 24.33%</span></span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">CHANCE OF CORRECT PREDICTION: MOST LIKELY</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">REGION: EAST MIDLANDS<br /><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">SEAT HISTORY<br />------------<br />1950<span>-<span style="font-style: italic;">DATE</span>: LAB</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style=";font-family:trebuchet ms;font-size:100%;" ><br /><br /></span></span></span></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7351740492176119548-2474399978254370997?l=ukpsephologist.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>uk_psephologisthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03483117929550923628noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7351740492176119548.post-71994316783749949462009-09-20T22:35:00.002+01:002009-09-20T22:38:11.562+01:00<object classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,29,0" width="310" height="40"><br /><param name="movie" value="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Labour%20HOLD.swf"><br /><param name="quality" value="high"><br /><embed src="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Labour%20HOLD.swf" quality="high" menu="false" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="310" height="40"></embed><br /></object><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><br />Projected Derby North result</span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">LAB</span>: 33.01%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255); font-weight: bold;">CON</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 31.01%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">L</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">D</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 30.93%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(192, 192, 192);">OTH</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 5.05</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">%</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">-----------</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">MAJ: 2.00%</span></span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">CHANCE OF CORRECT PREDICTION: ULTRA TIGHT</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">REGION: EAST MIDLANDS<br /><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">SEAT HISTORY<br />------------<br />1950-1983: LAB<br /><span style="font-style: italic;"></span><span style="font-style: italic;"></span><span>1983-1997: CON<br />1997-<span style="font-style: italic;">DATE</span>: LAB</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style=";font-family:trebuchet ms;font-size:100%;" ><br /><br /></span></span></span></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7351740492176119548-7199431678374994946?l=ukpsephologist.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>uk_psephologisthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03483117929550923628noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7351740492176119548.post-45786727763760608332009-09-20T22:33:00.001+01:002009-09-20T22:34:39.639+01:00<object classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,29,0" width="310" height="40"><br /><param name="movie" value="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Labour%20HOLD.swf"><br /><param name="quality" value="high"><br /><embed src="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Labour%20HOLD.swf" quality="high" menu="false" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="310" height="40"></embed><br /></object><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><br />Projected Denton and Reddish result</span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">LAB</span>: 51.95%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255); font-weight: bold;">CON</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 25.52%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">L</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">D</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 13.69%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(192, 192, 192);">OTH</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 8.84</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">%</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">-----------</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">MAJ: 26.43%</span></span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">CHANCE OF CORRECT PREDICTION: MOST LIKELY</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">REGION: NORTH WEST<br /><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">SEAT HISTORY<br />----------<span style="font-style: italic;">--<br /></span><span>1983-<span style="font-style: italic;">DATE</span>: LAB</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style=";font-family:trebuchet ms;font-size:100%;" ><br /><br /></span></span></span></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7351740492176119548-4578672776376060833?l=ukpsephologist.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>uk_psephologisthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03483117929550923628noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7351740492176119548.post-28353697094732512872009-09-20T22:28:00.002+01:002009-09-20T22:32:03.656+01:00<object classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,29,0" width="310" height="40"><br /><param name="movie" value="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Labour%20HOLD.swf"><br /><param name="quality" value="high"><br /><embed src="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Labour%20HOLD.swf" quality="high" menu="false" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="310" height="40"></embed><br /></object><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><br />Projected Delyn result</span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">LAB</span>: 39.60%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255); font-weight: bold;">CON</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 32.66%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">L</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">D</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 14.11%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /><span style="color: rgb(0, 153, 0);">PC</span>: 9.32%<br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(192, 192, 192);">OTH</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 4.31</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">%</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">-----------</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">MAJ: 6.94%</span></span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">CHANCE OF CORRECT PREDICTION: LIKELY</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">REGION: WALES<br /><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">SEAT HISTORY<br />----------<span style="font-style: italic;">--<br /></span><span>1983-1992: CON<br />1992-<span style="font-style: italic;">DATE</span>: LAB</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style=";font-family:trebuchet ms;font-size:100%;" ><br /><br /></span></span></span></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7351740492176119548-2835369709473251287?l=ukpsephologist.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>uk_psephologisthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03483117929550923628noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7351740492176119548.post-39092962794503469512009-09-20T22:26:00.002+01:002009-09-20T22:32:16.026+01:00<object classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,29,0" width="310" height="40"><br /><param name="movie" value="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Conservative%20HOLD.swf"><br /><param name="quality" value="high"><br /><embed src="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Conservative%20HOLD.swf" quality="high" menu="false" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="310" height="40"></embed><br /></object><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><br />Projected Daventry result<br /><br /></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255); font-weight: bold;">CON</span>: 57.90%</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">LAB</span>:</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"> 23.03</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">L</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">D</span>:</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"> 14.42%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(192, 192, 192);">OTH</span>: 4.65</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">%</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">-----------</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">MAJ: 34.87%</span></span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">CHANCE OF CORRECT PREDICTION: MOST LIKELY<br />REGION: EAST MIDLANDS<br /><br />SEAT HISTORY<br />------------<br />1918-1950: CON<br />------------<br /><span style="font-style: italic;">ABOLISHED</span><br />------------<br />1974-<span style="font-style: italic;">DATE</span>: CON</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style=";font-family:trebuchet ms;font-size:100%;" ><br /><br /></span></span></span></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7351740492176119548-3909296279450346951?l=ukpsephologist.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>uk_psephologisthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03483117929550923628noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7351740492176119548.post-31989648303136138692009-09-20T22:11:00.004+01:002009-09-22T23:55:44.237+01:00<object classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,29,0" width="310" height="40"><br /><param name="movie" value="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Conservative%20GAIN%20from%20Labour.swf"><br /><param name="quality" value="high"><br /><embed src="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Conservative%20GAIN%20from%20Labour.swf" quality="high" menu="false" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="310" height="40"></embed><br /></object><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><br /></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;">Projected Dartford result</span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><br /><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255); font-weight: bold;">CON</span>: 50.53%</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">LAB</span>: 37.38%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">LD</span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 4.57%</span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /><span style="color: rgb(153, 153, 153);">OTH</span>: 7.52%<br /></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">-----------<br />MAJ: 13.15</span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">%</span></span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">CHANCE OF CORRECT PREDICTION: MOST LIKELY<br />REGION: SOUTH EAST<br /><br />SEAT HISTORY<br />-----------<br />1885-1906: CON<br />1906-1910: LIB<br />1910-1910: CON<br />1910-1920: LIB<br />1920-1922: LAB<br />1922-1923: CST*<br />1923-1924: LAB<br />1924-1929: CON<br />1929-1931: LAB<br />1931-1938: CON<br />1938-1970: LAB<br />1970-1974: CON<br />1974-1979: LAB<br />1979-1997: CON<br />1997-<span style="font-style: italic;">DATE</span>: LAB<br /><br />* CONSTITUTIONALIST<br /><br /></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7351740492176119548-3198964830313613869?l=ukpsephologist.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>uk_psephologisthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03483117929550923628noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7351740492176119548.post-53738853321109975512009-09-16T23:42:00.004+01:002009-09-17T07:12:54.979+01:00<object classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,29,0" width="310" height="40"><br /><param name="movie" value="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Labour%20HOLD.swf"><br /><param name="quality" value="high"><br /><embed src="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Labour%20HOLD.swf" quality="high" menu="false" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="310" height="40"></embed><br /></object><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><br />Projected Darlington result</span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">LAB</span>: 41.35%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255); font-weight: bold;">CON</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 29.38%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">L</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">D</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 23.81%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(192, 192, 192);">OTH</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 5.46</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">%</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">-----------</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">MAJ: 11.97%</span></span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">CHANCE OF CORRECT PREDICTION: MOST LIKELY</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">REGION: NORTH EAST<br /><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">SEAT HISTORY<br />----------<span style="font-style: italic;">--<br /></span><span>1868-1895: LIB<br />1895-1910: CON*<br />1910-1910: LIB<br />1910-1926: CON<br />1926-1931: LAB<br />1931-1945: CON<br />1945-1951: LAB<br />1951-1964: CON<br />1964-1983: LAB<br />1983-1992: CON<br />1992-<span style="font-style: italic;">DATE</span>: LAB<br /><br />* ELECTED AS LIBERAL UNIONIST<br /></span><span style="font-style: italic;"></span><br />CANDIDATES<br />----------</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span></span><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255);">CON</span>:</span><span> Edward <span style="font-weight: bold;">LEGARD<br /><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 0);">LD</span>:</span><span> Mike </span><span style="font-weight: bold;">BARKER<br /><span style="color: rgb(204, 51, 204);">UKIP</span>:</span><span> Charlotte </span><span style="font-weight: bold;">BULL<br /></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br />SCENARIOS<br />----------</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">LAB HOLD: Labour to return at least 125 MPs to the new house of commons.</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">CON GAIN: Conservatives win first general election since 1992 with a landslide majority.</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">LD GAIN: Liberal Democrats to at least form her majestys opposition.</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style=";font-family:trebuchet ms;font-size:100%;" >A constituency based in the North East of England which has existed since 1868 and is now thought to be a safe Labour seat having undergone changes of political composition during its existance.<br /><br />Upon its creation the seat was a safe Liberal seat and remained so until the collapse of the Liberal party in the 1920's, the seat then became a Conservative / Labour marginal for the next 40 years until the 1960's when a slight in political demographics made the seat a traditional Labour seat which the Conservatives were able to win only in better than normal years for them (often Labour held the seat in this period by small majorities); the last chance in political composition has happened recently since Labour's victory in 1997 and has now made the seat a safe Labour seat under prominent Labour MP Alan Milburn.<br /><br />Minimal boundary changes coupled with Alan Milburn's decision to stand down at next election should not affect who wins this seat here and Labour should win albeit with a reduced majority - Labour HOLD<br /></span></span></span></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7351740492176119548-5373885332110997551?l=ukpsephologist.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>uk_psephologisthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03483117929550923628noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7351740492176119548.post-22453246588421502009-09-15T21:11:00.002+01:002009-09-15T22:19:58.126+01:00<object classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,29,0" width="310" height="40"><br /><param name="movie" value="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Labour%20HOLD.swf"><br /><param name="quality" value="high"><br /><embed src="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Labour%20HOLD.swf" quality="high" menu="false" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="310" height="40"></embed><br /></object><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><br />Projected Dagenham and Rainham result</span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">LAB</span>: 41.07%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255); font-weight: bold;">CON</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 39.21%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">L</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">D</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 5.26%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(192, 192, 192);">OTH</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 14.46</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">%</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">-----------</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">MAJ: 1.86%</span></span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">CHANCE OF CORRECT PREDICTION: ULTRA MARGINAL</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">REGION: GREATER LONDON<br /><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">SEAT HISTORY<br />----------<span style="font-style: italic;">-<br />NO ELECTION FOUGHT</span><br /><br />CANDIDATES<br />----------</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">LAB</span>:</span><span> Jon <span style="font-weight: bold;">CRUDDAS</span></span><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255);">CON</span>:</span><span> Simon <span style="font-weight: bold;">JON</span><span style="font-weight: bold;">ES</span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span><br /><br />SCENARIOS<br />----------</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">LAB HOLD: Labour to return at least 200 MPs to the new house of commons.</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">CON GAIN: Conservatives win first general election since 1992 with the possibility of a landslide majority.</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">LD GAIN: Liberal Democrats to form UK government.</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style=";font-family:trebuchet ms;font-size:100%;" >A constituency based in Greater London which comes into effect at the next general election and will effectively be a merger of the current Dagenham and Hornchurch constituencies; because as a constituency it has never existed before it will be more difficult to predict an accurate result here however it is thought this seat will be a traditional Labour seat that the Conservatives are able to gain in very good years for them.<br /><br />This will be a seat that the Conservatives will want to push Labour close to with a view to gaining the seat themselves; if Labour's Jon Cruddas is able to hold the seat with a reasonable majority then it is very likely that the Conservatives will not be able to win the general election with an outright majority - ***One to watch on election night***<br /></span></span></span></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7351740492176119548-2245324658842150?l=ukpsephologist.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>uk_psephologisthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03483117929550923628noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7351740492176119548.post-1751458164231678062009-09-15T20:28:00.002+01:002009-09-15T21:11:12.062+01:00<object classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,29,0" width="310" height="40"><br /><param name="movie" value="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Labour%20HOLD.swf"><br /><param name="quality" value="high"><br /><embed src="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Labour%20HOLD.swf" quality="high" menu="false" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="310" height="40"></embed><br /></object><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><br />Projected Cynon Valley result</span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">LAB</span>: 56.91%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /><span style="color: rgb(0, 153, 0);">PC</span>: 15.42%<br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255); font-weight: bold;">CON</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 14.49%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">L</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">D</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 8.99%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(192, 192, 192);">OTH</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 4.19</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">%</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">-----------</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">MAJ: 42.42%</span></span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">CHANCE OF CORRECT PREDICTION: MOST LIKELY</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">REGION: WALES<br /><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">SEAT HISTORY<br />----------<br />1983-<span style="font-style: italic;">DATE</span>: LAB<br /><br />CANDIDATES<br />----------</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">LAB</span>:</span><span> Ann <span style="font-weight: bold;">CLWYD</span><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span></span><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 153, 0);">PC</span>:</span><span> Dafydd Trystan <span style="font-weight: bold;">DAVIES</span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /><span style="color: rgb(204, 51, 204);">UKIP</span>: Sue <span style="font-weight: bold;">DAVIES</span><br /><br />SCENARIOS<br />----------</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">LAB HOLD: Labour reduced to a rump in the new house of commons.</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /><br />PC GAIN: Strong call for Welsh Independance<br /><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">CON GAIN: Conservatives win first general election since 1992 with a landslide majority.</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">LD GAIN: Liberal Democrats to form UK government.</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style=";font-family:trebuchet ms;font-size:100%;" >A constituency based in Wales which has existed since 1983 when it replaced the Aberdare seat; this is regarded one of Labour's safest seats in that even when Labour polls badly it has returned Labour candidates with large majorities.<br /><br />Minimal boundary changes do not change this and I would expect Labour to hold the seat easily albeit with a reduced majority - Labour HOLD<br /></span></span></span></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7351740492176119548-175145816423167806?l=ukpsephologist.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>uk_psephologisthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03483117929550923628noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7351740492176119548.post-55305428358322222392009-09-13T22:33:00.005+01:002009-09-15T20:26:30.769+01:00<object classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,29,0" width="310" height="40"><br /><param name="movie" value="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Labour%20HOLD.swf"><br /><param name="quality" value="high"><br /><embed src="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Labour%20HOLD.swf" quality="high" menu="false" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="310" height="40"></embed><br /></object><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><br />Projected Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East result</span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">LAB</span>: 40.61%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 0);">SNP</span>: 34.88%<br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255); font-weight: bold;">CON</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 10.15%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">L</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">D</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 8.18%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(192, 192, 192);">OTH</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 6.18</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">%</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">-----------</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">MAJ: 5.73%</span></span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">CHANCE OF CORRECT PREDICTION: LIKELY</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">REGION: SCOTLAND<br /><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">SEAT HISTORY<br />----------<br />2005-<span style="font-style: italic;">DATE</span>: LAB<br /><br />CANDIDATES<br />----------</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">LAB</span>:</span><span> Gregg <span style="font-weight: bold;">McCLYMONT</span><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span></span><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 0);">SNP</span>:</span><span> Julie <span style="font-weight: bold;">HEPBUR</span>N<span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br />SCENARIOS<br />----------</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">LAB HOLD: Labour to return at least around 200 seats in the new house of commons.</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /><br />SNP GAIN: SNP to at least double number of MPs from 2005<br /><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">CON GAIN: Conservatives win first general election since 1992 with a landslide majority.</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">LD GAIN: Liberal Democrats to form UK government.</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style=";font-family:trebuchet ms;font-size:100%;" >A constituency based in Scotland which has existed since 2005 when it replaced the Cumbernauld and Kilsyth seat; this is regarded as a safe Labour seat in that in recent years Labour has managed to win both seats with substantial majorities even when in opposition however the perceived rise in the SNP's fortunes mean that this may now become a seat that Labour is able to win in most years but the SNP could gain should Labour poll very badly.<br /><br />The likely result here would be a Labour HOLD however with the recent successes of the SNP taken into account along with the current Labour MP Rosemary McKenna standing down there is a slim chance they could pull off a major coup and pick up the seat although I think Labour would be polling worse than expected if that happened - Labour HOLD<br /></span></span></span></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7351740492176119548-5530542835832222239?l=ukpsephologist.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>uk_psephologisthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03483117929550923628noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7351740492176119548.post-31499063523122083492009-09-13T19:49:00.002+01:002009-09-13T20:13:04.042+01:00<object classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,29,0" width="310" height="40"><br /><param name="movie" value="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Conservative%20HOLD.swf"><br /><param name="quality" value="high"><br /><embed src="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Conservative%20HOLD.swf" quality="high" menu="false" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="310" height="40"></embed><br /></object><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><br />Projected Croydon South result<br /><br /></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255); font-weight: bold;">CON</span>: 59.63%</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">LAB</span>:</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"> 17.04</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">L</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">D</span>:</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"> 16.92%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(192, 192, 192);">OTH</span>: 6.41</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">%</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">-----------</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">MAJ: 42.71%</span></span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">CHANCE OF CORRECT PREDICTION: MOST LIKELY<br />REGION: GREATER LONDON<br /><br />SEAT HISTORY<br />------------<br />1974-<span style="font-style: italic;">DATE</span>: CON<br /><br />CANDIDATES<br /><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255);">----------</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255);">CON</span>:</span><span> Richard <span style="font-weight: bold;">OTTAWAY</span></span><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span><span><span><span><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span><span><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(255, 204, 0);"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">LAB</span><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">:</span></span><span><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"> Jane <span style="font-weight: bold;">AVIS</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span><span><span><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 0);"><br /><span style="color: rgb(51, 204, 0);">GRN</span></span>:</span></span><span><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"> Sue <span style="font-weight: bold;">LUXTON<br /><span style="color: rgb(204, 51, 204);">UKIP</span>:</span> Kathleen <span style="font-weight: bold;">GARNER<br /></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br />SCENARIOS<br />----------<br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">CON HOLD: Conservatives to at least return around 25 MPs to the house of commons.</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">LAB GAIN: Labour achieves 4th consecutive General election victory with a landslide majority</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">.</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">LD GAIN: Liberal Democrats at least form her majestys opposition</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">.<br /><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style=";font-family:trebuchet ms;font-size:100%;" >A constituency based in Greater London which has existed since 1974 and is thought to be a Conservative safe seat in that even when the Conservatives poll very badly (i.e 1997 &amp; 2001) they are still able to hold the seat with large majorities.<br /><br />The current MP here is Richard Ottaway who has been the MP here since 1992, minimal boundary changes do not alter the sufficiently and I expect the Conservatvives to win here with an increased majority - Conservative HOLD<br /></span></span></span></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7351740492176119548-3149906352312208349?l=ukpsephologist.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>uk_psephologisthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03483117929550923628noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7351740492176119548.post-88425384006561234842009-09-13T17:44:00.002+01:002009-09-13T19:26:49.180+01:00<object classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,29,0" width="310" height="40"><br /><param name="movie" value="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Labour%20HOLD.swf"><br /><param name="quality" value="high"><br /><embed src="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Labour%20HOLD.swf" quality="high" menu="false" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="310" height="40"></embed><br /></object><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><br />Projected Croydon North result</span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">LAB</span>: 46.64%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255); font-weight: bold;">CON</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 29.87%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">L</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">D</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 13.74%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(192, 192, 192);">OTH</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 9.75</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">%</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">-----------</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">MAJ: 16.77%</span></span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">CHANCE OF CORRECT PREDICTION: MOST LIKELY</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">REGION: GREATER LONDON<br /><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">SEAT HISTORY<br />----------<br />1918-1955: CON<br />----------<br /><span style="font-style: italic;">ABOLISHED</span><br />----------<br />1997-<span style="font-style: italic;">DATE</span>: LAB<br /><br />CANDIDATES<br />----------</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">LAB</span>:</span><span> Malcolm <span style="font-weight: bold;">WICK</span><span style="font-weight: bold;">S</span></span><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255);">CON</span>:</span><span> Jason <span style="font-weight: bold;">HADDE</span>N<br /><span style="color: rgb(51, 204, 0);">GRN</span>: Shasha <span style="font-weight: bold;">KHAN<br /><span style="color: rgb(204, 51, 204);">UKIP</span>:</span> Henry <span style="font-weight: bold;">PEARCE<br /></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br />SCENARIOS<br />----------</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">LAB HOLD: Labour to return at least around 100 seats in the new house of commons.</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">CON GAIN: Conservatives win first general election since 1992 with a landslide majority.</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">LD GAIN: Liberal Democrats likely to form UK government.</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style=";font-family:trebuchet ms;font-size:100%;" >A constituency based in Greater London which has existed in its current form since 1997 having initially existed from 1918 to 1995; the initial seat was a Conservative safe seat which even returned a Conservative (Henry Willink) in the 1945 Labour landslide, however the current incarnation is a Labour safe seat which has consistently re-elected Labour's Malcolm Wicks (Previously MP for Croydon North West) with very large majorities.<br /><br />Boundary changes here are minimal and this should remain a Labour stronghold albeit with a reduced majority - Labour HOLD<br /></span></span></span></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7351740492176119548-8842538400656123484?l=ukpsephologist.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>uk_psephologisthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03483117929550923628noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7351740492176119548.post-65451397889434449992009-09-13T17:07:00.004+01:002009-09-20T22:11:45.967+01:00<object classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,29,0" width="310" height="40"><br /><param name="movie" value="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Conservative%20GAIN%20from%20Labour.swf"><br /><param name="quality" value="high"><br /><embed src="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Conservative%20GAIN%20from%20Labour.swf" quality="high" menu="false" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="310" height="40"></embed><br /></object><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><br /></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;">Projected Croydon Central result</span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><br /><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255); font-weight: bold;">CON</span>: 48.13%</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">LAB</span>: 34.06%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">LD</span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 9.47%</span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /><span style="color: rgb(153, 153, 153);">OTH</span>: 8.35%<br /></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">-----------<br />MAJ: 14.07</span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">%</span></span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">CHANCE OF CORRECT PREDICTION: MOST LIKELY<br />REGION: GREATER LONDON<br /><br />SEAT HISTORY<br />-----------<br />1974-1997: CON<br />1997-2005: LAB<br />2005-<span style="font-style: italic;">DATE</span>: CON<br /><br />CANDIDATES<br />----------<span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255);"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 0);"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">LAB</span></span>: </span>Gerry <span style="font-weight: bold;">RYAN</span><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255);">CON</span>:</span><span> Gavin</span><span> <span style="font-weight: bold;">BARWELL<br /><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 0);">LD</span>:</span><span> Stephen </span><span style="font-weight: bold;">DERING<br /><span style="color: rgb(255, 153, 255);">OMRL</span>:</span><span> John </span><span style="font-weight: bold;">CARTWRIGHT*<br /><span style="color: rgb(51, 204, 0);">GRN</span>:</span><span> Bernice </span><span style="font-weight: bold;">GOLBERG<br /><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 153);">BNP</span>:</span><span> Cliff </span><span style="font-weight: bold;">LE MAY<br /><span style="color: rgb(204, 51, 204);">UKIP</span>:</span><span> Ian </span><span style="font-weight: bold;">EDWARDS<br /><br /></span><span>* OFFICIAL MONSTER RAVING LOONY PARTY</span><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></span></span><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255);"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><br /></span></span>SCENARIOS<br />----------<br />LAB HOLD: </span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">Labour wins a 4th consecutive General Election.</span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /><br /></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">CON GAIN: </span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">A </span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">majority of less than 3% </span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">would likely mean </span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">Labour wins a 4th consecutive General Election, </span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">a </span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">majority of between 3%-7%</span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"> would likely mean a hung parliament with </span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">Labour</span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"> as the largest party, a </span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">majority of between 7%-11%</span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"> </span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">would likely mean a hung parliament with </span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">the Conservatives</span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"> as the largest party</span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">, a majority of more than 11% would l</span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">ikely mean a f</span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">irst Conservative general election victory since 1992</span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">.</span></span></span></span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">LD GAIN: Liberal Democrats likely to form UK government.<br /><br /><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;">A constituency based in Greater London which has existed since 1974 and is thought to be a traditionally Conservative seat that Labour can win in very good years for them.<br /><br />In 2005 this is a seat that the Conservatives won by an incredibly slim margin (75 votes) meaning that even minor boundary changes here are able to affect who controls the constituency going into the next general election; my take on these boundary changes suggest that Labour would have won the seat (albeit by a small margin) if these changes had been inplace in 2005 meaning that on election night this would be treated as a seat the Tories need to gain.<br /><br />If the Conservatives are to win the general election as a whole then they will need to gain this seat with a pretty large majority, a Labour win here will mean they have won a 4th successive general election - ***One to watch on election night**<br /></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:85%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7351740492176119548-6545139788943444999?l=ukpsephologist.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>uk_psephologisthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03483117929550923628noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7351740492176119548.post-20255403265089087252009-09-12T22:00:00.003+01:002009-09-13T17:43:32.527+01:00<object classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,29,0" width="310" height="40"><br /><param name="movie" value="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Labour%20HOLD.swf"><br /><param name="quality" value="high"><br /><embed src="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Labour%20HOLD.swf" quality="high" menu="false" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="310" height="40"></embed><br /></object><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><br />Projected Crewe and Nantwich result</span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">LAB</span>: 41.88%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255); font-weight: bold;">CON</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 36.88%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">L</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">D</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 15.01%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(192, 192, 192);">OTH</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 6.23</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">%</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">-----------</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">MAJ: 5.00%</span></span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">CHANCE OF CORRECT PREDICTION: ULTRA-MARGINAL</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">REGION: NORTH WEST<br /><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">SEAT HISTORY<br />----------<br />1983-2008: LAB<br />2008-<span style="font-style: italic;">DATE</span>: CON<br /><br />CANDIDATES<br />----------</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255);">CON</span>:</span><span> Edward <span style="font-weight: bold;">TIMPSON</span><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">LAB</span>:</span><span> David <span style="font-weight: bold;">EDWARDS</span><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span></span><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span><br /></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">SCENARIOS<br />----------</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">LAB HOLD: Labour to return at least around 175 seats in the new house of commons.</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">CON GAIN: Conservatives win first general election since 1992 with a possible landslide majority.</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">LD GAIN: Liberal Democrats to form UK government.</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style=";font-family:trebuchet ms;font-size:100%;" >A constituency based in the North West of England which has existed since 1983 and is thought to be a traditional Labour seat however it is one that the Conservatives can win when they are polling very well.<br /><br />A recent by-election in this constituency following the death of the previous MP Gwyneth Dunwoody makes this slightly harder to call at the next election, minimal boundary changes mean that this will be a closely fought seat that I would normally just about favour Labour to retain however in light of the by-election victory for the Conservative Edward Timpson I realise that he may have built up an incumbency factor here and this could significantly alter the result for this seat - ***One to watch on election night***<br /></span></span></span></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7351740492176119548-2025540326508908725?l=ukpsephologist.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>uk_psephologisthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03483117929550923628noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7351740492176119548.post-58624288382227416762009-09-12T20:13:00.004+01:002009-09-13T16:43:25.035+01:00<object classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,29,0" width="310" height="40"><br /><param name="movie" value="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Conservative%20GAIN%20from%20Labour.swf"><br /><param name="quality" value="high"><br /><embed src="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Conservative%20GAIN%20from%20Labour.swf" quality="high" menu="false" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="310" height="40"></embed><br /></object><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><br /></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;">Projected Crawley result</span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><br /><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255); font-weight: bold;">CON</span>: 48.11%</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">LAB</span>: 33.67%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">LD</span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 9.92%</span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /><span style="color: rgb(153, 153, 153);">OTH</span>: 8.30%<br /></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">-----------<br />MAJ: 14.44</span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">%</span></span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">CHANCE OF CORRECT PREDICTION: MOST LIKELY<br />REGION: SOUTH EAST<br /><br />SEAT HISTORY<br />-----------<br />1950-1959: LAB<br />1959-1964: CON<br />1964-1974: LAB<br />-----------<br />SEAT ABOLISHED<br />-----------<br />1983-1997: CON<br />1997-<span style="font-style: italic;">DATE</span>: LAB<br /><br />CANDIDATES<br />----------<span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255);"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 0);"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">LAB</span></span>: </span>Laura <span style="font-weight: bold;">MOFFATT</span><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255);">CON</span>:</span><span> Henry</span><span> <span style="font-weight: bold;">SMITH</span></span><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255);"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></span></span><br /></span></span>SCENARIOS<br />----------<br />LAB HOLD: </span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">Labour wins a 4th consecutive General Election.</span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /><br /></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">CON GAIN: </span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">A </span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">majority of less than 3% </span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">would likely mean </span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">Labour wins a 4th consecutive General Election, </span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">a </span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">majority of between 3%-7%</span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"> would likely mean a hung parliament with </span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">Labour</span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"> as the largest party, a </span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">majority of between 7%-11%</span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"> </span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">would likely mean a hung parliament with </span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">the Conservatives</span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"> as the largest party</span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">, a majority of more than 11% would l</span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">ikely mean a f</span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">irst Conservative general election victory since 1992</span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">.</span></span></span></span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">LD GAIN: Liberal Democrats likely to form UK government.<br /><br /><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;">A constituency based in the South East of England which has existed since 1983 and is thought to be a Conservative / Labour marginal that returns MPs for the party which goes onto form government.<br /><br />After coming so close in 2005 this is a seat that the Conservatives will want to win by a large margin if they are to win the general election as a whole, a Labour win here will mean they have won a 4th successive general election - ***One to watch on election night**<br /></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:85%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7351740492176119548-5862428838222741676?l=ukpsephologist.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>uk_psephologisthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03483117929550923628noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7351740492176119548.post-82733028495356423492009-09-12T19:40:00.004+01:002009-09-13T16:43:10.590+01:00<object classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,29,0" width="310" height="40"><br /><param name="movie" value="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Conservative%20GAIN%20from%20Labour.swf"><br /><param name="quality" value="high"><br /><embed src="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Conservative%20GAIN%20from%20Labour.swf" quality="high" menu="false" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="310" height="40"></embed><br /></object><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><br /></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;">Projected Coventry South result</span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><br /><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255); font-weight: bold;">CON</span>: 36.74%</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">LAB</span>: 36.70%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">LD</span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 18.92%</span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /><span style="color: rgb(153, 153, 153);">OTH</span>: 7.64%<br /></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">-----------<br />MAJ: 0.04</span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">%</span></span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">CHANCE OF CORRECT PREDICTION: ULTRA-MARGINAL<br />REGION: WEST MIDLANDS<br /><br />SEAT HISTORY<br />-----------<br />1950-1959: LAB<br />1959-1964: CON<br />1964-1974: LAB<br />-----------<br />SEAT ABOLISHED<br />-----------<br />1997-<span style="font-style: italic;">DATE</span>: LAB<br /><br />CANDIDATES<br />----------<span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255);"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 0);"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">LAB</span></span>: </span>Jim <span style="font-weight: bold;">CUNNINGHAM</span><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255);">CON</span>:</span><span> Kevin</span><span> <span style="font-weight: bold;">FOSTER</span><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span></span><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255);"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /><span style="color: rgb(51, 204, 0);">GRN</span>:</span><span> Scott <span style="font-weight: bold;">REDDING</span><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></span></span><br /></span></span>SCENARIOS<br />----------<br />LAB HOLD: </span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">A </span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">majority of more than 11% </span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">would likely mean </span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">Labour wins a 4th consecutive General Election, </span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">a </span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">majority of between 11%-7%</span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"> would likely mean a hung parliament with </span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">Labour</span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"> as the largest party, a </span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">majority of between 7%-3%</span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"> </span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">would likely mean a hung parliament with </span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">the Conservatives</span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"> as the largest party</span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">, a majority of less than 3% would l</span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">ikely mean a f</span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">irst Conservative general election victory since 1992</span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">.<br /><br /></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">CON GAIN: Conservatives win first election since 1992</span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">LD GAIN: Liberal Democrats likely to form UK government.<br /><br /><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;">A constituency based in the West Midlands which has existed in it's current form since 1997 having initially existed from 1950 to 1974 and is thought to be a Conservative / Labour marginal however the initial form of the seat was a traditional Labour seat that the Conservatives were able to gain when they polled very well.<br /><br />This will be an interesting seat it is one of the seats that the Conservatives will need to be winning if they are form government with an effective majority, minimal boundary changes do not change this assumption and therefore the Conservatives will need to come close to gaining this seat (if not gaining it) if they are to succeed nationally in forming government with an effective majority, a Labour win here will mean they have won a 4th successive general election - ***One to watch on election night**<br /></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:85%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7351740492176119548-8273302849535642349?l=ukpsephologist.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>uk_psephologisthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03483117929550923628noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7351740492176119548.post-79794643809400068722009-09-12T19:19:00.004+01:002009-09-13T16:42:53.907+01:00<object classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,29,0" width="310" height="40"><br /><param name="movie" value="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Labour%20HOLD.swf"><br /><param name="quality" value="high"><br /><embed src="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Labour%20HOLD.swf" quality="high" menu="false" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="310" height="40"></embed><br /></object><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><br />Projected Coventry North West result</span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">LAB</span>: 38.57%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255); font-weight: bold;">CON</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 33.28%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">L</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">D</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 19.66%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(192, 192, 192);">OTH</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 8.49</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">%</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">-----------</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">MAJ: 5.30%</span></span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">CHANCE OF CORRECT PREDICTION: MARGINAL</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">REGION: WEST MIDLANDS<br /><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">SEAT HISTORY<br />----------<br />1974-<span style="font-style: italic;">DATE</span>: LAB<br /><br />CANDIDATES<br />----------</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">LAB</span>:</span><span> Geoffrey <span style="font-weight: bold;">ROBINSON</span><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span></span><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></span><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255);">CON</span>:</span><span> Gary <span style="font-weight: bold;">RIDLEY</span><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span><br /></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">SCENARIOS<br />----------</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">LAB HOLD: Labour to return at least around 175 seats in the new house of commons.</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">CON GAIN: Conservatives win first general election since 1992 with a possible landslide majority.</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">LD GAIN: Liberal Democrats to form UK government.</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style=";font-family:trebuchet ms;font-size:100%;" >A constituency based in the West Midlands which has existed since 1974 and is currently thought to be a safe Labour seat in that even when Labour has polled very badly (i.e. 1980's) they still managed to win the seat, however recent election results have shown a larger than expected loss of votes which mean there is now an outside chance of the Conservatives winning the seat.<br /><br />Minimal boundary changes mean that this is a seat Labour should be able to win however in light of recent results here with Labour able to win nationallly there is a chance the Conservatives could pick up this seat although Labour would be polling worse than expected - Labour HOLD<br /></span></span></span></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7351740492176119548-7979464380940006872?l=ukpsephologist.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>uk_psephologisthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03483117929550923628noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7351740492176119548.post-71830501491031977282009-09-12T18:47:00.004+01:002009-09-13T16:42:38.808+01:00<object classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,29,0" width="310" height="40"><br /><param name="movie" value="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Labour%20HOLD.swf"><br /><param name="quality" value="high"><br /><embed src="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Labour%20HOLD.swf" quality="high" menu="false" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="310" height="40"></embed><br /></object><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><br />Projected Coventry North East result</span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">LAB</span>: 47.33%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255); font-weight: bold;">CON</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 25.25%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">L</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">D</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 17.87%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(192, 192, 192);">OTH</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 9.55</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">%</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">-----------</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">MAJ: 22.08%</span></span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">CHANCE OF CORRECT PREDICTION: MOST LIKELY</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">REGION: WEST MIDLANDS<br /><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">SEAT HISTORY<br />----------<br />1974-<span style="font-style: italic;">DATE</span>: LAB<br /><br />CANDIDATES<br />----------</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">LAB</span>:</span><span> Bob <span style="font-weight: bold;">AINSWORTH</span></span><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></span><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255);">CON</span>:</span><span> Hazel <span style="font-weight: bold;">NOONAN</span><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span><br /></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">SCENARIOS<br />----------</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">LAB HOLD: Labour to return at least around 50 seats in the new house of commons.</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">CON GAIN: Conservatives win first general election since 1992.</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">LD GAIN: Liberal Democrats to form UK government.</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style=";font-family:trebuchet ms;font-size:100%;" >A constituency based in the West Midlands which has existed since 1974 and is thought to be a safe Labour seat in that even when Labour polls very badly (i.e. 1980's) they still managed to win the seat.<br /><br />Minimal boundary changes mean that if Labour were to even come close to losing this seat they would be facing electoral catasrophe and be replaced as the second largest party at Westminster, Labour should retain this seat with a decent majority too - Labour HOLD<br /></span></span></span></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7351740492176119548-7183050149103197728?l=ukpsephologist.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>uk_psephologisthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03483117929550923628noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7351740492176119548.post-37694974160188218552009-09-12T18:27:00.005+01:002009-09-13T16:42:21.383+01:00<object classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,29,0" width="310" height="40"><br /><param name="movie" value="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Conservative%20HOLD.swf"><br /><param name="quality" value="high"><br /><embed src="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Conservative%20HOLD.swf" quality="high" menu="false" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="310" height="40"></embed><br /></object><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><br />Projected The Cotswolds result<br /><br /></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255); font-weight: bold;">CON</span>: 58.08%</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">L</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">D</span>:</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"> 24.62%<br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">LAB</span>:</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"> 11.96</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(192, 192, 192);">OTH</span>: 5.34</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">%</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">-----------</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">MAJ: 33.45%</span></span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">CHANCE OF CORRECT PREDICTION: MOST LIKELY<br />REGION: SOUTH WEST<br /><br />SEAT HISTORY<br />------------<br />1997-<span style="font-style: italic;">DATE</span>: CON<br /><br />CANDIDATES<br /><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255);">----------</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255);">CON</span>:</span><span> Geoffrey </span><span style="font-weight: bold;">CLIFTON-BROWN<br /></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span><span><span><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 0);">LD</span>:</span></span><span><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"> Roger <span style="font-weight: bold;">BROWN<br /></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span><span><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(255, 204, 0);"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">LAB</span><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">:</span></span><span><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"> Mark <span style="font-weight: bold;">DEMPSEY</span><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span></span><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><br /></span></span><span><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br />SCENARIOS<br />----------<br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">CON HOLD: Conservatives to at least return around 75 MPs to the house of commons.</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">LD GAIN: Liberal Democrats to form her majestys opposition</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">.<br /><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">LAB GAIN: Labour achieves 4th consecutive General election victory with a landslide majority</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">.</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style=";font-family:trebuchet ms;font-size:100%;" >A constituency based in the South West of England which has existed since 1997 and is thought to be a Conservative safe seat in that even when the Conservatives poll very badly (i.e 1997 &amp; 2001) they are still able to hold the seat with large majorities.<br /><br />The current MP here is Geoffrey Clifton-Brown who has been the only MP for this seat and prior to 1997 had been MP for Cirencester and Tewkesbury the predecesor of this seat.<br /><br />There are minimal boundary changes here at the next election and I expect the Conservatvives win here with an increased majority - Conservative HOLD<br /></span></span></span></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7351740492176119548-3769497416018821855?l=ukpsephologist.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>uk_psephologisthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03483117929550923628noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7351740492176119548.post-73092089958905573642009-09-09T23:17:00.003+01:002009-09-13T16:41:49.857+01:00<object classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,29,0" width="310" height="40"><br /><param name="movie" value="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Liberal%20Democrat%20HOLD.swf"><br /><param name="quality" value="high"><br /><embed src="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Liberal%20Democrat%20HOLD.swf" quality="high" menu="false" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="310" height="40"></embed><br /></object><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><br />Projected Cornwall South East result<br /><br /></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">LD</span>: 43.90</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">%<br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255); font-weight: bold;">CON</span>: 42.81%<br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">LAB</span>: 4.85%<br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(192, 192, 192);">OTH</span>: 8.44%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br />-----------</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">MAJ: 1.10%<br /><br />CHANCE OF CORRECT PREDICTION: ULTRA-TIGHT<br />REGION: SOUTH WEST<br /><br />SEAT HISTORY<br />-----------<br />1983-1997: CON<br />1997<span>-</span><span style="font-style: italic;">DATE</span>: LD<br /><br />CANDIDATES<br />----------<br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">LD</span>: Karen <span style="font-weight: bold;">GILLARD</span><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255);">CON</span>:</span><span> Sheryll <span style="font-weight: bold;">MURRAY</span><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span></span><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255);"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">LAB</span>:</span><span> Bill</span> <span style="font-weight: bold;">STEVENS</span><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /><span style="color: rgb(204, 51, 204);">UKIP</span>:</span><span> Stephanie <span style="font-weight: bold;">MCWILLIAM<br /><span style="color: rgb(153, 153, 0);">MK</span>:</span><span> Glenn </span><span style="font-weight: bold;">RADSHAW<br /></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br />SCENARIOS<br />----------<br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">LD HOLD: Liberal Democrats to return around 40 MPs to the new house of commons.<br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">CON GAIN: Conservatives win first General Election since 1992</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">.<br /><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">LAB GAIN: Labour achieves 4th consecutive General election victory with a landslide majority.</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style=";font-family:trebuchet ms;font-size:100%;" >A constituency based in the South West of England which has existed since 1983 and is thought to be a traditional Liberal Democrat seat which in good years for the Conservatives they themselves are able to gain the seat.<br /><br />This as with much of cornwall will be fascinating to see at election night in that these are areas which on good years for the Conservative party often fall to them however in recent years the Liberal Democrats have built a fairly stubborn vote here which has proven to be hard to breakdown; indeed the Liberal Democrat majority remains slightly higher here than in 1997.<br /><br />Although boundary changes here are small the fact that the current MP since 1997 Colin Breed is standing down at the next election combined with the anticipated revival of Conservative vote mean that it is likely this will be an incredibly tight result with the possibility of recounts here - ***One to watch on election night***<br /></span></span></span></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7351740492176119548-7309208995890557364?l=ukpsephologist.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>uk_psephologisthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03483117929550923628noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7351740492176119548.post-1964174199750053802009-09-06T22:01:00.007+01:002009-09-13T16:41:34.114+01:00<object classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,29,0" width="310" height="40"><br /><param name="movie" value="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Liberal%20Democrat%20HOLD.swf"><br /><param name="quality" value="high"><br /><embed src="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Liberal%20Democrat%20HOLD.swf" quality="high" menu="false" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="310" height="40"></embed><br /></object><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><br />Projected Cornwall North result<br /><br /></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">LD</span>: 42.33</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">%<br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255); font-weight: bold;">CON</span>: 40.47%<br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">LAB</span>: 9.62%<br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(192, 192, 192);">OTH</span>: 7.58%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br />-----------</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">MAJ: 1.86%<br /><br />CHANCE OF CORRECT PREDICTION: ULTRA-TIGHT<br />REGION: SOUTH WEST<br /><br />SEAT HISTORY<br />-----------<br />1918-1924: LIB<br />1924-1929: CON<br />1929-1946: LIB<br />1946-1947: IND<br />1947-1950: LAB<br />1950-1966: CON<br />1966-1979: LIB<br />1979-1992: CON<br />1992<span>-</span><span style="font-style: italic;">DATE</span>: LD<br /><br />CANDIDATES<br />----------<br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">LD</span>: Dan <span style="font-weight: bold;">ROGERSON<br /><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255);">CON</span>:</span><span> Sian <span style="font-weight: bold;">FLYNN</span></span><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255);"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">LAB</span>:</span><span> Peter</span> <span style="font-weight: bold;">WATSON</span><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /><span style="color: rgb(204, 51, 204);">UKIP</span>:</span><span> Ivor <span style="font-weight: bold;">MASTERS</span></span><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br />SCENARIOS<br />----------<br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">LD HOLD: Liberal Democrats to return around 40 MPs to the new house of commons.<br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">CON GAIN: Conservatives win first General Election since 1992</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">.<br /><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">LAB GAIN: Labour achieves 4th consecutive General election victory with a landslide majority.</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style=";font-family:trebuchet ms;font-size:100%;" >A constituency based in the South West of England which has existed since 1918 and is thought to be a traditional Liberal Democrat seat which in good years for the Conservatives they themselves are able to gain the seat.<br /><br />This as with much of cornwall will be fascinating to see at election night in that these are areas which on good years for the Conservative party often fall to them however in recent years the Liberal Democrats have built a fairly stubborn vote here will be hard to breakdown; 1997 was the highpoint for the Lib Dems here with a majority of over 20% for the former MP here Paul Tyler, since then the Liberal Democrat majority has fallen quite sharply in the following elections so if that trend were to continue it would surely mean the Conservatives would gain the seat.<br /><br />Boundary changes here are thought to be favourable to the Liberal Democrats which evens out the constituency meaning it is likely this will be an incredibly tight result with the possibility of recounts here - ***One to watch on election night***<br /></span></span></span></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7351740492176119548-196417419975005380?l=ukpsephologist.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>uk_psephologisthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03483117929550923628noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7351740492176119548.post-44399971310154978252009-09-05T11:37:00.006+01:002009-09-13T16:41:19.611+01:00<object classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,29,0" width="310" height="40"><br /><param name="movie" value="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Conservative%20GAIN%20from%20Labour.swf"><br /><param name="quality" value="high"><br /><embed src="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Conservative%20GAIN%20from%20Labour.swf" quality="high" menu="false" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="310" height="40"></embed><br /></object><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><br /></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;">Projected Corby result</span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><br /><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255); font-weight: bold;">CON</span>: 45.07%</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">LAB</span>: 36.37%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">LD</span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 13.27%</span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /><span style="color: rgb(153, 153, 153);">OTH</span>: 5.29%<br /></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">-----------<br />MAJ: 8.70</span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">%</span></span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">CHANCE OF CORRECT PREDICTION: LIKELY<br />REGION: EAST MIDLANDS<br /><br />SEAT HISTORY<br />-----------<br />1983-1997: CON<br />1997-<span style="font-style: italic;">DATE</span>: LAB<br /><br />CANDIDATES<br />----------<span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255);"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 0);"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">LAB</span></span>: </span>Phil <span style="font-weight: bold;">HOPE</span><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255);">CON</span>:</span><span> Louise</span><span> <span style="font-weight: bold;">BAGSHAWE</span><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span></span><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255);"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /><span style="color: rgb(204, 51, 204);">UKIP</span>:</span><span> Ian <span style="font-weight: bold;">GILLMAN</span><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></span></span><br /></span></span>SCENARIOS<br />----------<br />LAB HOLD: </span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">Labour wins a 4th consecutive General Election</span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /><br />CON GAIN: </span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">A </span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">majority of less than 3% </span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">would likely mean a hung parliament with </span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">Labour</span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"> as the largest party, a </span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">majority of between 3%-6%</span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"> </span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">would likely mean a hung parliament with </span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">the Conservatives</span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"> as the largest party</span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">, a majority of more than 6% would l</span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">ikely mean a f</span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">irst Conservative general election victory since 1992</span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">.<br /><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">LD GAIN: Liberal Democrats likely to form UK government.<br /><br /><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;">A constituency based in the East Midlands which has existed since 1983 and it thought to be a Conservative / Labour marginal that tends to return MP's for the party that eventually forms government.<br /><br />This is quickly being referred to as a bellweather seat following previous elections here and coupled with an unchanged parliamentary constituency as far as boundary changes are concerned I see no reason why this shouldn't change, therefore I see no reason why the Conservatives will not be able to take this seat (especially if they wish to form government) and they will need to have a reasonable majority here if they are to succeed nationally in forming government, a Labour win here will mean they have won a 4th successive general election - ***One to watch on election night**<br /></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:85%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7351740492176119548-4439997131015497825?l=ukpsephologist.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>uk_psephologisthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03483117929550923628noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7351740492176119548.post-67366972285299533472009-09-02T22:10:00.002+01:002009-09-13T16:40:58.517+01:00<object classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,29,0" width="310" height="40"><br /><param name="movie" value="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Labour%20HOLD.swf"><br /><param name="quality" value="high"><br /><embed src="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Labour%20HOLD.swf" quality="high" menu="false" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="310" height="40"></embed><br /></object><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><br />Projected Copeland result</span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">LAB</span>: 43.04%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255); font-weight: bold;">CON</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 38.38%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">L</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">D</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 10.46%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(192, 192, 192);">OTH</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 8.12</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">%</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">-----------</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">MAJ: 4.66%</span></span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">CHANCE OF CORRECT PREDICTION: ULTRA MARGINAL</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">REGION: NORTH WEST<br /><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">SEAT HISTORY<br />----------<br />1983-<span style="font-style: italic;">DATE</span>: LAB<br /><br />CANDIDATES<br />----------</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">LAB</span>:</span><span> Jamie </span><span style="font-weight: bold;">REED<br /></span><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255);">CON</span>:</span><span> Chris <span style="font-weight: bold;">WHITESIDE<br /><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 0);">LD</span>:</span><span> Frank </span><span style="font-weight: bold;">HOLLOWELL<br /></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span><br /></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">SCENARIOS<br />----------</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">LAB HOLD: Labour to return at least around 200 seats in the new house of commons.</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">CON GAIN: Conservatives win first general election since 1992.</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">LD GAIN: Liberal Democrats to form UK government.</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style=";font-family:trebuchet ms;font-size:100%;" >A constituency based in the North West of England which has existed since 1983 and is thought to be a safe Labour seat in that even when Labour polls very badly (i.e. 1980's) they still managed to win the seat, however a less than expected majority for Labour here in recent years in line with other areas mean that there may be a slight shift in political composition here which means that although the seat is still traditionally Labour it is one the Conservatives could pick up if Labour polls badly like they did in the 1980's.<br /><br />Minimal boundary changes mean that the result here has the potential to be quite tight and although it may not prove to be one of the closest of Conservative / Labour marginals it is one the Conservatives will eye with a view to running Labour very close here if they are to form government with an outright majority - ***One to watch on election night***<br /></span></span></span></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7351740492176119548-6736697228529953347?l=ukpsephologist.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>uk_psephologisthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03483117929550923628noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7351740492176119548.post-59020521079733363962009-09-02T20:55:00.004+01:002009-09-13T16:40:45.607+01:00<object classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,29,0" width="310" height="40"><br /><param name="movie" value="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Conservative%20HOLD.swf"><br /><param name="quality" value="high"><br /><embed src="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Conservative%20HOLD.swf" quality="high" menu="false" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="310" height="40"></embed><br /></object><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><br />Projected Congleton result<br /><br /></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255); font-weight: bold;">CON</span>: 50.09%</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">L</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">D</span>:</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"> 23.18%<br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">LAB</span>:</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"> 20.63</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /><span style="color: rgb(0, 153, 0);"></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(192, 192, 192);">OTH</span>: 6.10</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">%</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">-----------</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">MAJ: 29.46%</span></span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">CHANCE OF CORRECT PREDICTION: MOST LIKELY<br />REGION: NORTH WEST<br /><br />SEAT HISTORY<br />------------<br />1983-<span style="font-style: italic;">DATE</span>: CON<br /><br />CANDIDATES<br />----------</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></span></span></span></span></span><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size:100%;" ><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 0);"><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255);"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span><span><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(255, 204, 0);"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">LAB</span><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">:</span></span><span><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"> David <span style="font-weight: bold;">BRYANT</span></span><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><br /><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 0);">LD</span>:</span></span><span><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"> Peter <span style="font-weight: bold;">HIRST</span></span></span><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><br /></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br />SCENARIOS<br />----------<br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">CON HOLD: Conservatives to at least return around 150 MPs to the house of commons.</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">LD GAIN: Liberal Democrats to form her majestys opposition</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">.<br /><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">LAB GAIN: Labour achieves 4th consecutive General election victory with a landslide majority</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">.</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style=";font-family:trebuchet ms;font-size:100%;" >A constituency based in the North West of England which has existed since 1983 and is thought to be a Conservative safe seat in that even when the Conservatives poll very badly (i.e 1997 &amp; 2001) they are still able to hold the seat with reasonable large majorities.<br /><br />The current MP here is Lady Ann Winterton - the wife of Sir Nicholas Winterton who is MP for the neighbouring Macclesfield constituency, she is to step down at the next general election along with her husband.<br /><br />There are no boundary changes here at the next election and even though the Conservatives will have a new candidate standing here next time around I expect the Conservatvives win and quite comfortably too with an increased majority - Conservative HOLD<br /></span></span></span></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7351740492176119548-5902052107973336396?l=ukpsephologist.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>uk_psephologisthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03483117929550923628noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7351740492176119548.post-11732448895454994752009-09-01T23:46:00.004+01:002009-09-13T16:40:32.539+01:00<object classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,29,0" width="310" height="40"><br /><param name="movie" value="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Conservative%20GAIN%20from%20Labour.swf"><br /><param name="quality" value="high"><br /><embed src="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Conservative%20GAIN%20from%20Labour.swf" quality="high" menu="false" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="310" height="40"></embed><br /></object><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><br /></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;">Projected Colne Valley result</span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><br /><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255); font-weight: bold;">CON</span>: 41.11%</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">LAB</span>: 27.93%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">LD</span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 21.85%</span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /><span style="color: rgb(153, 153, 153);">OTH</span>: 9.12%<br /></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">-----------<br />MAJ: 13.18</span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">%</span></span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">CHANCE OF CORRECT PREDICTION: MOST LIKELY<br />REGION: YORKSHIRE &amp; THE HUMBER<br /><br />SEAT HISTORY<br />-----------<br />1885-1907: LIB<br />1907-1910: IND<br />1910-1922: LIB<br />1922-1931: LAB<br />1931-1931: NAT*<br />1931-1935: LIB<br />1935-1966: LAB<br />1966-1970: LIB<br />1970-1974: LAB<br />1974-1987: LIB<br />1987-1997: CON<br />1997-<span style="font-style: italic;">DATE</span>: LAB<br /><br />* NATIONAL LABOUR<br /><br />CANDIDATES<br />----------<span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255);"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 0);"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">LAB</span></span>: </span>Debbie <span style="font-weight: bold;">ABRAHAMS</span><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255);">CON</span>:</span><span> Jason</span><span> <span style="font-weight: bold;">MCCARTHY</span></span><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255);"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 0);">LD</span>:</span><span> Nicola <span style="font-weight: bold;">TURNER</span><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></span></span><br /></span></span>SCENARIOS<br />----------<br />LAB HOLD: </span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">Labour wins a 4th consecutive General Election</span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /><br />CON GAIN: </span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">A </span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">majority of less than 1% </span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">would likely mean </span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">Labour wins a 4th consecutive General Election, </span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">a </span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">majority of between 3%-7%</span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"> </span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">would likely mean a hung parliament with </span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">Labour</span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"> as the largest party, a </span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">majority of between 7%-10%</span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"> </span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">would likely mean a hung parliament with </span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">the Conservatives</span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"> as the largest party</span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">, a majority of more than 10% would l</span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">ikely mean a f</span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">irst Conservative general election victory since 1992</span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">.<br /><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">LD GAIN: Liberal Democrats likely to form her majestys opposition.<br /><br /><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;">A constituency based in Yorkshire and the humber which has existed since 1885 which has undergone a major change of political composition in the last 30 years.<br /><br />Originally a Liberal safe seat when it was first created in 1885 the rise of the Labour party in the in the early 20th century meant by the 1920's the seat became a Liberal / Labour marginal, during the Liberal parties worst period during the mid 20th century the seat became a safe Labour seat but the rise of fortunes for the Liberal party in the 1960's and 1970's meant the seat reverted to being a Liberal / Labour marginal.<br /><br />The bad polling of the Labour during the 1980's enabled the Conservatives to gain a foothold in the area and by 1987 pulled of a shock victory when they gained the seat from the Liberal's whose previous MP here Richard Wainwright had been MP for the constituency in two separate stints (1966-1970 and then 1974-1987), the Conservatives continued to hold the seat until 1997 when Labour's Kali Mountford picked up the seat in their landslide victory and has subsequently held it ever since.<br /><br />Minimal changes coupled with the fact that Kali Mountford is to stand down at the next election means the Conservatives will look to take this seat and they will need to have a big majority here if they are to succeed nationally in forming government, a Labour win here will mean they have won a 4th successive general election - ***One to watch on election night**<br /></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:85%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7351740492176119548-1173244889545499475?l=ukpsephologist.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>uk_psephologisthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03483117929550923628noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7351740492176119548.post-17681879068938293952009-09-01T22:16:00.004+01:002009-09-13T16:35:47.142+01:00<object classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,29,0" width="310" height="40"><br /><param name="movie" value="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Liberal%20Democrat%20HOLD.swf"><br /><param name="quality" value="high"><br /><embed src="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Liberal%20Democrat%20HOLD.swf" quality="high" menu="false" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="310" height="40"></embed><br /></object><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><br />Projected Colchester result<br /><br /></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">LD</span>: 44.88</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">%<br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255); font-weight: bold;">CON</span>: 39.87%<br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">LAB</span>: 10.24%<br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(192, 192, 192);">OTH</span>: 5.00%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br />-----------</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">MAJ: 5.01%<br /><br />CHANCE OF CORRECT PREDICTION: LIKELY<br />REGION: EASTERN<br /><br />SEAT HISTORY - SINCE 1885<br />-----------<br />1885-1895: CON<br />1895-1910: LIB<br />1910-1945: CON<br />1945-1950: LAB<br />1950-1983: CON<br />-----------<br /><span style="font-style: italic;">ABOLISHED<br /><span style="font-style: italic;">-----------</span><br /></span>1997<span>-</span><span style="font-style: italic;">DATE</span>: LD<br /><br />CANDIDATES<br />----------<br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">LD</span>: Bob <span style="font-weight: bold;">RUSSELL<br /><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255);">CON</span>:</span><span> Will </span><span style="font-weight: bold;">QUINCE<br /></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255);"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">LAB</span>: </span>Michael <span style="font-weight: bold;">POWELL<br /><span style="color: rgb(51, 204, 0);">GRN</span>:</span><span> Peter </span><span style="font-weight: bold;">LYNN<br /></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br />SCENARIOS<br />----------<br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">LD HOLD: Liberal Democrats to return around 50 MPs to the new house of commons.<br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">CON GAIN: Conservatives win first General Election since 1992</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">.<br /><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">LAB GAIN: Labour achieves 4th consecutive General election victory with a landslide majority.</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style=";font-family:trebuchet ms;font-size:100%;" >A constituency based in the East of England which has existed in its current form since 1997 having initially existed from 1295-1983 and it is now thought to be a traditional Liberal Democrat seat which in good years for the Conservatives they themselves are able to gain the seat.<br /><br />The original seat was a Conservative / Liberal marginal throughout the 19th century and due to the troubles of the Liberal party in the 20th century became a Conservative safe seat which since 1910 they only lost once (1945).<br /><br />Since the seat was recreated in 1997 it has been held by Liberal Democrat Bob Russell who interestingly enough was the losing candidate here in 1979 when he was the Labour candidate, since winning in 1997 he has gone on to strengthen his majority here as each election however the percieved revival of Conservative fortunes nationally mean that their majority here should be lower however they should be reasonably confident of holding the seat - Liberal Democrat HOLD<br /></span></span></span></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7351740492176119548-1768187906893829395?l=ukpsephologist.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>uk_psephologisthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03483117929550923628noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7351740492176119548.post-50615834470692614482009-08-30T20:42:00.003+01:002009-09-13T16:21:03.061+01:00<object classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,29,0" width="310" height="40"><br /><param name="movie" value="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Labour%20HOLD.swf"><br /><param name="quality" value="high"><br /><embed src="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Labour%20HOLD.swf" quality="high" menu="false" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="310" height="40"></embed><br /></object><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><br />Projected Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill result</span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">LAB</span>: 53.28%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 0);">SNP</span>: 26.23%<br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255); font-weight: bold;">CON</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 10.44%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">L</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">D</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 5.31%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(192, 192, 192);">OTH</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 4.74</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">%</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">-----------</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">MAJ: 27.05%</span></span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">CHANCE OF CORRECT PREDICTION: MOST LIKELY</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">REGION: SCOTLAND<br /><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">SEAT HISTORY<br />----------<br />2005-<span style="font-style: italic;">DATE</span>: LAB<br /><br />CANDIDATES<br />----------</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);"></span></span><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255);">CON</span>:</span><span> John <span style="font-weight: bold;">BELL</span><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span><span><br /></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">SCENARIOS<br />----------</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">LAB HOLD: Labour to return at least around 50 seats in the new house of commons.<br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br />SNP GAIN: Strong call for Scottish Independence<br /><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">CON GAIN: Conservatives win first general election since 1992 with a landslide majority.</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">LD GAIN: Liberal Democrats to form UK government.</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style=";font-family:trebuchet ms;font-size:100%;" >A constituency based in Scotland which has existed since 2005 and is a safe Labour so much so that in 2005 the elected MP for the seat Thomas Clarke was voted in with the largest numerical majority of any MP at Westminster.<br /><br />Prior to 2005 the constituency represented here was just called Coatbridge and Chryston which too was a Labour safe seat, Labour should easily win here although expect a large rise in support for the SNP - Labour HOLD<br /></span></span></span></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7351740492176119548-5061583447069261448?l=ukpsephologist.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>uk_psephologisthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03483117929550923628noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7351740492176119548.post-57025426910047180322009-08-30T19:56:00.004+01:002009-09-13T16:20:49.970+01:00<object classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,29,0" width="310" height="40"><br /><param name="movie" value="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Conservative%20HOLD.swf"><br /><param name="quality" value="high"><br /><embed src="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Conservative%20HOLD.swf" quality="high" menu="false" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="310" height="40"></embed><br /></object><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><br />Projected Clwyd West result<br /><br /></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255); font-weight: bold;">CON</span>: 42.73%</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">LAB</span>:</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"> 30.26</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /><span style="color: rgb(0, 153, 0);">PC</span>: 12.72%<br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">L</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">D</span>:</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"> 9.04%<br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(192, 192, 192);">OTH</span>: 5.25</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">%</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">-----------</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">MAJ: 12.47%</span></span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">CHANCE OF CORRECT PREDICTION: MOST LIKELY<br />REGION: WALES<br /><br />SEAT HISTORY<br />------------<br />1997-2005: LAB<br />2005-<span style="font-style: italic;">DATE</span>: CON<br /><br />CANDIDATES<br />----------</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></span></span></span></span></span><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size:100%;" ><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 0);"><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255);">CON</span><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">:</span></span></span><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 0);"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"> David<span> <span style="font-weight: bold;">JONES</span><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span><span><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(255, 204, 0);"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">LAB</span><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">:</span></span><span><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"> Donna </span><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">HUTTON<br /><span style="color: rgb(204, 51, 204);">UKIP</span>:</span></span><span><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"> Warwick </span></span><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">NICHOLSON<br /></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br />SCENARIOS<br />----------<br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">CON HOLD: Conservatives to at least return around 225 MPs to the house of commons.</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">LAB GAIN: Labour achieves 4th consecutive General election victory with the possibility a landslide majority</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">.</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">LD GAIN: Liberal Democrats to form UK government</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">.<br /><br />PC GAIN: Strong call for Welsh independence.<br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style=";font-family:trebuchet ms;font-size:100%;" >A constituency based in Wales which has existed since 1997 when it replaced the previous Clwyd North West, it is thought to be a traditionally Conservative safe seat that Labour is able to win when the Conservatives poll very badly (i.e 1997 &amp; 2001).<br /><br />After managing to win the seat in 2005 (albeit very narrowly) the Conservatives will be looking to make a big increase to their majority here next time round indeed this is the more Conservative area of Clwyd as opposed to Clwyd South which is more Labour inclined.<br /><br />Boundary changes here for the next election are minimal and along with recent national and regional trend this is a seat I expect the Conservatvives win and quite comfortably too - Conservative HOLD<br /></span></span></span></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7351740492176119548-5702542691004718032?l=ukpsephologist.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>uk_psephologisthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03483117929550923628noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7351740492176119548.post-53550132649484717762009-08-30T19:30:00.004+01:002009-09-13T16:20:35.303+01:00<object classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,29,0" width="310" height="40"><br /><param name="movie" value="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Labour%20HOLD.swf"><br /><param name="quality" value="high"><br /><embed src="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Labour%20HOLD.swf" quality="high" menu="false" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="310" height="40"></embed><br /></object><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><br />Projected Clwyd South result</span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">LAB</span>: 39.06%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255); font-weight: bold;">CON</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 31.95%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">L</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">D</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 11.77%</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /><span style="color: rgb(0, 153, 0);">PC</span>: 11.33%<br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(192, 192, 192);">OTH</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">: 5.88</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">%</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">-----------</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">MAJ: 7.11%</span></span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">CHANCE OF CORRECT PREDICTION: LIKELY</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">REGION: WALES<br /><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">SEAT HISTORY<br />----------<br />1997-<span style="font-style: italic;">DATE</span>: LAB<br /><br />CANDIDATES<br />----------</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);"></span></span><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255);">CON</span>:</span><span> John <span style="font-weight: bold;">BELL</span><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span><span><br /></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">SCENARIOS<br />----------</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">LAB HOLD: Labour to return at least around 175 seats in the new house of commons.<br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">CON GAIN: Conservatives win first general election since 1992 with a landslide majority.</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;">LD GAIN: Liberal Democrats to form UK government.</span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><br /><br />PC GAIN: Strong argument for Welsh Independence<br /><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style=";font-family:trebuchet ms;font-size:100%;" >A constituency based in Wales which has existed since 1997 when it replaced the previous Clwyd South West, it is thought to be a traditional Labour seat that the Conservatives can gain when Labour are polling very badly (Like in the 1980's).<br /><br />This is the more Labour inclined of the two Clwyd seats - indeed the Conservatives managed to gain Clwyd West at the last general election in 2005, however it is thought that Labour will have to poll worse than expected in order for them to lose this seat.<br /><br />Boundary changes are minimal meaning the Conservatives do have a slim chance of winning this seat however I think Labour are favourites here and should hold on - Labour HOLD<br /></span></span></span></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7351740492176119548-5355013264948471776?l=ukpsephologist.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>uk_psephologisthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03483117929550923628noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7351740492176119548.post-10220486300020639002009-08-29T19:56:00.004+01:002009-09-13T16:20:21.776+01:00<object classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,29,0" width="310" height="40"><br /><param name="movie" value="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Conservative%20GAIN%20from%20Labour.swf"><br /><param name="quality" value="high"><br /><embed src="http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/17/2480280/Conservative%20GAIN%20from%20Labour.swf" quality="high" menu="false" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="310" height="40"></embed><br /></object><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><br /></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;">Projected Cleethorpes result</span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><br /><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255); font-weight: bold;">CON</span>: 45.67%</span></span></span><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><span style="font-family:courier new;"><span style="c